Lincoln Red Imps FC
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Lincoln Red Imps FC 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split
The model makes it 23% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 27% draw, 50% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC 1.01, HNK Hajduk Split 1.73.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Lincoln Red Imps FC's rating is built from its last 6 matches; HNK Hajduk Split's from 46 Croatian HNL matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Lincoln Red Imps FC are 27th on 0 points from 1 game; HNK Hajduk Split are 10th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to NK Varazdin.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 50% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- L1-2away to Brann15 October 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1Ajax15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Lincoln Red Imps FC carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.66 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.73 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lincoln Red Imps FC rate 0.51 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.78 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC against 1.73 for HNK Hajduk Split. Lincoln Red Imps FC's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.14 for HNK Hajduk Split.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- at Egnatia Rrogozhinë26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 26%
- vs FC Midtjylland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
- at Monaco17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%
HNK Hajduk Split
- at NK Osijek7 Nov · HNLwin 43%
- vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 Nov · HNLwin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.