Granada CF
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Granada CF 2–0 AD Ceuta FC
The model makes it 61% Granada CF, 23% draw, 16% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Granada CF 2.17, AD Ceuta FC 0.89.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Granada CF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Granada CF's rating is built from 54 Segunda División matches and AD Ceuta FC's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Granada CF are 7th on 23 points from 12 games; AD Ceuta FC are bottom on 5 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Granada CF are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Eldense.
- AD Ceuta FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Cordoba.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 February 2026, ended AD Ceuta FC 2–1 Granada CF.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Granada CF vs AD Ceuta FC
Has the model earned this number?
Granada CF at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Granada CF vs AD Ceuta FC
Granada CF
Segunda División
- W2-0away to Eldense1 November 2026
- W2-1Valladolid23 October 2026
- W2-0Cadiz18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División
- L0-3away to Cordoba7 November 2026
- L0-2Sporting Gijon1 November 2026
- L1-3away to Cadiz25 October 2026
- L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
What these results say
- Granada CF won every one of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 23 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Granada CF vs AD Ceuta FC
- 20 February 2026AD Ceuta FC 2–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 7 December 2025Granada CF 1–1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 29 July 2023Granada CF 2–0 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Granada CF and AD Ceuta FC
Granada CF
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pascual40
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Granada CF a 2.1% chance of the title and AD Ceuta FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Granada CF the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Granada CF against 0.89 for AD Ceuta FC. Granada CF's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.87 for AD Ceuta FC.
How the model reaches 61% for Granada CF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Granada CF to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Granada CF's ratings add 9 points and AD Ceuta FC's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Granada CF's ratings52%+9
- AD Ceuta FC's ratings61%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Granada CF at home · AD Ceuta FC away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Granada CF 12, AD Ceuta FC 13.
AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Granada CF have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Granada CF
- at Sporting Gijon6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Girona13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
AD Ceuta FC
- vs Albacete6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at Leganes13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Eibar20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.