Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva
The model makes it 74% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 15% draw, 11% Maccabi Petah Tikva — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 3.27, Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.03.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Maccabi Tel Aviv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Maccabi Tel Aviv's rating is built from 42 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Maccabi Petah Tikva's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are 2nd on 17 points from 7 games; Maccabi Petah Tikva are 10th on 6 points from 7 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Beitar Jerusalem.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Maccabi Haifa.
- Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 December 2024, ended Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–2 Maccabi Petah Tikva.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 74% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al
- D0-0away to Beitar Jerusalem19 October 2026
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Netanya19 September 2026
- W4-1Hapoel Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al
- L1-2Maccabi Haifa17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa10 October 2026
- L2-4Hapoel Jerusalem19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Beitar Jerusalem15 September 2026
- L1-2Ironi Tiberias5 September 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Tel Aviv went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 17 |
| 10 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
- 21 December 2024Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–2 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 1 September 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–3 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 15 July 2024Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaSuper Cup
- 2 April 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 4–2 Maccabi Tel AvivState Cup
- 2 March 2024Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 24 December 2023Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz51
- O. Davida20
Maccabi Petah Tikva
GoalsAssists
- J. Cortés21
- S. Owusu21
- L. Hazan21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Maccabi Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.22 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.27 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.03 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 0.98 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Petah Tikva rate 0.59 and 2.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Tel Aviv a 53.5% chance of the title and Maccabi Petah Tikva 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.27 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 1.03 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.11 for Maccabi Petah Tikva.
How the model reaches 74% for Maccabi Tel Aviv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Maccabi Tel Aviv to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Maccabi Tel Aviv's ratings take away 5 points and Maccabi Petah Tikva's ratings add 40 points, which lands on the published 74%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Maccabi Tel Aviv's ratings34%−5
- Maccabi Petah Tikva's ratings74%+40
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Tel Aviv at home · Maccabi Petah Tikva away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Tel Aviv 7, Maccabi Petah Tikva 7.
Maccabi Tel Aviv score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Maccabi Petah Tikva have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 68%
- at Ironi Kiryat Shmona1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 65%
- vs Ironi Tiberias5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 65%
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 19%
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
- at Maccabi Netanya5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.