Hapoel Jerusalem
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Jerusalem 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
The model makes it 20% Hapoel Jerusalem, 25% draw, 55% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 5.00, 4.00 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Jerusalem 0.95, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.90.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Hapoel Tel Aviv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hapoel Jerusalem are 7th on 7 points from 6 games; Hapoel Tel Aviv are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Jerusalem have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Maccabi Haifa.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Hapoel Tel Aviv 3–1 Hapoel Jerusalem.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Jerusalem
- L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026
- W4-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ironi Tiberias15 September 2026
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W3-1away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona10 October 2026
- W3-0Hapoel Petah Tikva18 September 2026
- L1-4away to Maccabi Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Jerusalem had three goals or more.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hapoel Jerusalem
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Chance to finish in the top four · 78% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 13 February 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 3–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 8 November 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 0–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 29 July 2025Hapoel Tel Aviv 3–0 Hapoel JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
- 1 April 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 9 March 2024Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 27 January 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Hapoel Tel AvivState Cup
Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- A. Idoko42
- N. Vrasana40
Hapoel Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- E. Boateng32
- D. Owusu30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hapoel Jerusalem carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.66 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Hapoel Jerusalem and 1.90 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Jerusalem rate 0.55 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.72 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hapoel Jerusalem a 0% chance of the title and Hapoel Tel Aviv 11.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hapoel Jerusalem against 1.90 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Hapoel Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.08 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Jerusalem at home · Hapoel Tel Aviv away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Jerusalem 6, Hapoel Tel Aviv 6.
Hapoel Jerusalem score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Hapoel Tel Aviv have let in 1 there.
Hapoel Tel Aviv score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Hapoel Jerusalem have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Jerusalem
- at Maccabi Netanya31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 29%
- vs Bnei Sakhnin7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 43%
- at Beitar Jerusalem28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 18%
- vs Hapoel Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- vs Maccabi Haifa31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 41%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 59%
- vs Maccabi Netanya1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.