Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
Hapoel Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–1 Hapoel Haifa
The model makes it 62% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 21% draw, 17% Hapoel Haifa — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.41, Hapoel Haifa 1.03.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Maccabi Tel Aviv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are top on 16 points from 6 games; Hapoel Haifa are 6th on 9 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Bnei Sakhnin.
- Hapoel Haifa have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Maccabi Petah Tikva.
- Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Tel Aviv 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Hapoel Haifa 1–4 Maccabi Tel Aviv.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 62% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Netanya19 September 2026
- W4-1Hapoel Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
Hapoel Haifa
- W2-1Maccabi Petah Tikva10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Beitar Jerusalem19 September 2026
- W3-1Bnei Sakhnin14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva2 September 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Tel Aviv went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Haifa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Haifa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Hapoel Haifa.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 16 |
| 6 | Hapoel Haifa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 58% today
Hapoel Haifa
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
- 5 April 2026Hapoel Haifa 1–4 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 27 December 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 5–0 Hapoel HaifaState Cup
- 3 December 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–1 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 26 April 2025Hapoel Haifa 1–3 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 15 March 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–0 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 8 March 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Haifa
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz51
- E. Sokler21
- O. Davida20
Hapoel Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Turgeman31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Maccabi Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.36 for Hapoel Haifa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.03 for Hapoel Haifa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 1.01 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Haifa rate 0.56 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Tel Aviv a 57.9% chance of the title and Hapoel Haifa 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 1.03 for Hapoel Haifa. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.5 for Hapoel Haifa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Tel Aviv at home · Hapoel Haifa away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Tel Aviv 6, Hapoel Haifa 6.
Maccabi Tel Aviv score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Hapoel Haifa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 70%
- vs Maccabi Petah Tikva7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 75%
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 66%
- at Ironi Kiryat Shmona1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 65%
Hapoel Haifa
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 42%
- at Ironi Kiryat Shmona7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
- vs Ironi Tiberias28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 41%
- at Hapoel Jerusalem1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.