Ironi Kiryat Shmona
vs
Hapoel Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–2 Hapoel Haifa
The model makes it 36% Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 27% draw, 37% Hapoel Haifa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.41, Hapoel Haifa 1.44.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Haifa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Ironi Kiryat Shmona's rating is built from 40 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Hapoel Haifa's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona are 13th on 3 points from 7 games; Hapoel Haifa are 7th on 9 points from 7 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Maccabi Netanya.
- Hapoel Haifa have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Hapoel Ramat Gan.
- Last 6 meetings: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Hapoel Haifa 1–3 Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Haifa at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Haifa
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ligat Ha'al
- L0-1away to Maccabi Netanya17 October 2026
- L1-3Hapoel Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 September 2026
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
Hapoel Haifa
Ligat Ha'al
- L0-2Hapoel Ramat Gan17 October 2026
- W2-1Maccabi Petah Tikva10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Beitar Jerusalem19 September 2026
- W3-1Bnei Sakhnin14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Haifa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Haifa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Haifa.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Haifa
- 8 August 2026Hapoel Haifa 1–3 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 10 July 2026Hapoel Haifa 0–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaFriendlies Clubs
- 3 May 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–0 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 19 January 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3–1 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 4 October 2025Hapoel Haifa 0–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 23 July 2025Hapoel Haifa 0–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaToto Cup Ligat Al
Leading scorers: Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Haifa
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Turgeman31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ironi Kiryat Shmona carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.3 for Hapoel Haifa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 1.44 for Hapoel Haifa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.56 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Haifa rate 0.53 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Haifa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona against 1.44 for Hapoel Haifa. Ironi Kiryat Shmona's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.59 for Hapoel Haifa.
How the model reaches 37% for Hapoel Haifa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hapoel Haifa to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Ironi Kiryat Shmona's ratings add 36 points and Hapoel Haifa's ratings take away 33 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona's ratings70%+36
- Hapoel Haifa's ratings37%−33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home · Hapoel Haifa away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 7, Hapoel Haifa 7.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Hapoel Haifa have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
- vs Maccabi Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 16%
- at Hapoel Petah Tikva5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
Hapoel Haifa
- vs Ironi Tiberias28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Hapoel Jerusalem1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
- vs Maccabi Haifa5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.