Aberdeen
vs
Hibernian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Aberdeen 1–0 Hibernian
The model makes it 41% Aberdeen, 29% draw, 30% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.39, Hibernian 1.12.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Aberdeen's rating is built from 47 Scottish Premiership matches and Hibernian's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 522 matches.
Key facts
- Aberdeen are 7th on 11 points from 9 games; Hibernian are bottom on 7 points from 9 games — Premiership.
- Aberdeen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to St Mirren.
- Hibernian have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Falkirk.
- Last 6 meetings: Hibernian 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Hibernian 1–1 Aberdeen.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aberdeen vs Hibernian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aberdeen at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aberdeen vs Hibernian
Aberdeen
Premiership
- W3-1St Mirren17 October 2026
- L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hibernian19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
Hibernian
Premiership
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
- D1-1Aberdeen19 September 2026
- L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aberdeen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Hibernian
- 19 September 2026Hibernian 1–1 AberdeenPremiership
- 11 April 2026Aberdeen 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 30 December 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 26 October 2025Aberdeen 1–2 HibernianPremiership
- 26 April 2025Aberdeen 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 1 February 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Hibernian
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet42
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- M. Boyle30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aberdeen carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.38 for Hibernian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Aberdeen and 1.12 for Hibernian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aberdeen rate 0.55 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hibernian rate 0.58 and 1.49.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aberdeen the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Aberdeen against 1.12 for Hibernian. Aberdeen's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.49 for Hibernian.
How the model reaches 41% for Aberdeen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Aberdeen to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Aberdeen's ratings take away 25 points and Hibernian's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Aberdeen's ratings19%−25
- Hibernian's ratings41%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aberdeen at home · Hibernian away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AberdeenHibernian
Aberdeen are 7th after 9 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Hibernian are 12th after 9 (between 5th and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Aberdeen 9, Hibernian 9.
Aberdeen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Hibernian have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Aberdeen
- at Kilmarnock21 Nov · Premiershipwin 34%
- vs Dundee28 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
Hibernian
- vs Dundee United21 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
- at Motherwell28 Nov · Premiershipwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.