Ironi Tiberias
vs
Maccabi Netanya
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Ironi Tiberias 2–1 Maccabi Netanya
The model makes it 37% Ironi Tiberias, 26% draw, 37% Maccabi Netanya — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ironi Tiberias 1.52, Maccabi Netanya 1.52.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Netanya are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ironi Tiberias are bottom on 1 point from 6 games; Maccabi Netanya are 8th on 6 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Ironi Tiberias are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Hapoel Beer Sheva.
- Maccabi Netanya are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Hapoel Petah Tikva.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 July 2026, ended Ironi Tiberias 3–3 Maccabi Netanya.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ironi Tiberias at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Maccabi Haifa19 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Jerusalem15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
Maccabi Netanya
- D1-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva10 October 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Tel Aviv19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Ramat Gan14 September 2026
- D1-1Hapoel Haifa7 September 2026
- W4-1away to Beitar Jerusalem29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Tiberias conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Tiberias failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ironi Tiberias
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Maccabi Netanya
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya
- 3 July 2026Ironi Tiberias 3–3 Maccabi NetanyaFriendlies Clubs
- 10 May 2026Ironi Tiberias 4–3 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 3 January 2026Ironi Tiberias 4–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 20 September 2025Maccabi Netanya 5–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 8 March 2025Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 9 December 2024Ironi Tiberias 2–3 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Maccabi Netanya
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Davó40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ironi Tiberias carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.36 for Maccabi Netanya. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Ironi Tiberias and 1.52 for Maccabi Netanya. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Tiberias rate 0.56 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Netanya rate 0.64 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Maccabi Netanya, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ironi Tiberias the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ironi Tiberias against 1.52 for Maccabi Netanya. Ironi Tiberias's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.71 for Maccabi Netanya.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ironi Tiberias at home · Maccabi Netanya away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Ironi Tiberias 6, Maccabi Netanya 6.
Ironi Tiberias score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Maccabi Netanya have let in 1 there.
Maccabi Netanya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Ironi Tiberias have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ironi Tiberias
- at Bnei Sakhnin31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 41%
- vs Beitar Jerusalem7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 25%
- at Hapoel Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 31%
- vs Hapoel Ramat Gan1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 49%
Maccabi Netanya
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 46%
- at Maccabi Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 21%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 24%
- at Hapoel Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.