Ironi Kiryat Shmona
vs
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Bnei Sakhnin
The model makes it 44% Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 30% draw, 26% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.36, Bnei Sakhnin 0.94.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Ironi Kiryat Shmona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona are 12th on 3 points from 6 games; Bnei Sakhnin are 10th on 5 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Hapoel Tel Aviv.
- Bnei Sakhnin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Maccabi Tel Aviv.
- Last 6 meetings: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 August 2026, ended Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Bnei Sakhnin.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L1-3Hapoel Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 September 2026
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
Bnei Sakhnin
- D0-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Ramat Gan19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hapoel Haifa14 September 2026
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bnei Sakhnin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
Bnei Sakhnin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin
- 4 August 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Bnei SakhninToto Cup Ligat Al
- 13 May 2026Bnei Sakhnin 0–4 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 4 April 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 2 December 2025Bnei Sakhnin 1–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 6 August 2025Bnei Sakhnin 1–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 3 May 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ironi Kiryat Shmona carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.18 for Bnei Sakhnin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 0.94 for Bnei Sakhnin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.58 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bnei Sakhnin rate 0.34 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bnei Sakhnin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ironi Kiryat Shmona the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona against 0.94 for Bnei Sakhnin. Ironi Kiryat Shmona's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.34/1.47 for Bnei Sakhnin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home · Bnei Sakhnin away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 6, Bnei Sakhnin 6.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Bnei Sakhnin have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- at Beitar Jerusalem31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 18%
- vs Hapoel Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 41%
- vs Maccabi Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 16%
Bnei Sakhnin
- vs Ironi Tiberias31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 28%
- at Hapoel Jerusalem7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 27%
- vs Maccabi Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 17%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.