Ironi Tiberias
vs
Beitar Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Ironi Tiberias 1–2 Beitar Jerusalem
The model makes it 24% Ironi Tiberias, 26% draw, 50% Beitar Jerusalem — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ironi Tiberias 1.12, Beitar Jerusalem 1.85.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Beitar Jerusalem are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Ironi Tiberias's rating is built from 40 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Beitar Jerusalem's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Ironi Tiberias are bottom on 1 point from 7 games; Beitar Jerusalem are 5th on 13 points from 7 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Ironi Tiberias are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Hapoel Tel Aviv.
- Beitar Jerusalem are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Maccabi Tel Aviv.
- Last 6 meetings: Beitar Jerusalem 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Beitar Jerusalem 3–2 Ironi Tiberias.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beitar Jerusalem at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
Ligat Ha'al
- L0-1away to Hapoel Tel Aviv17 October 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Maccabi Haifa19 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Jerusalem15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
Beitar Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al
- D0-0Maccabi Tel Aviv19 October 2026
- W4-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan11 October 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Haifa19 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Petah Tikva15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bnei Sakhnin7 September 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Tiberias conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Tiberias failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 1 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem
- 4 April 2026Beitar Jerusalem 3–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 27 December 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–2 Beitar JerusalemState Cup
- 3 December 2025Ironi Tiberias 0–5 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 23 December 2024Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 31 August 2024Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 3 January 2023Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Ironi TiberiasState Cup
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Beitar Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Beitar Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- O. Atzili32
- E. Ansah30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ironi Tiberias carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.6 for Beitar Jerusalem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Ironi Tiberias and 1.85 for Beitar Jerusalem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Tiberias rate 0.55 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beitar Jerusalem rate 0.79 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ironi Tiberias a 0% chance of the title and Beitar Jerusalem 5.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beitar Jerusalem the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ironi Tiberias against 1.85 for Beitar Jerusalem. Ironi Tiberias's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.29 for Beitar Jerusalem.
How the model reaches 50% for Beitar Jerusalem to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Beitar Jerusalem to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Ironi Tiberias's ratings add 30 points and Beitar Jerusalem's ratings take away 14 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Ironi Tiberias's ratings64%+30
- Beitar Jerusalem's ratings50%−14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ironi Tiberias at home · Beitar Jerusalem away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Ironi Tiberias 7, Beitar Jerusalem 7.
Ironi Tiberias score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Beitar Jerusalem have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ironi Tiberias
- at Hapoel Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
- vs Hapoel Ramat Gan1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 44%
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 15%
Beitar Jerusalem
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 61%
- at Maccabi Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.