Hapoel Beer Sheva
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Hapoel Tel Aviv
The model makes it 39% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 28% draw, 33% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.42, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.28.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hapoel Beer Sheva's rating is built from 43 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Hapoel Tel Aviv's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are 4th on 16 points from 7 games; Hapoel Tel Aviv are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Hapoel Jerusalem.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ironi Tiberias.
- Last 6 meetings: Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 May 2026, ended Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ligat Ha'al
- W2-1Hapoel Jerusalem18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ironi Tiberias10 October 2026
- W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva13 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Tel Aviv7 September 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al
- W1-0Ironi Tiberias17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona10 October 2026
- W3-0Hapoel Petah Tikva18 September 2026
- L1-4away to Maccabi Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Beer Sheva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 15 May 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 2 May 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 19 January 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 4 October 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 16 August 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–2 Hapoel Tel AvivToto Cup Ligat Al
- 22 April 2025Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–5 Hapoel Beer ShevaState Cup
Leading scorers: Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Beer Sheva
GoalsAssists
- A. Ganah20
Hapoel Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- E. Boateng32
- D. Owusu30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Beer Sheva carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.65 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.28 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.83 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.71 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hapoel Tel Aviv, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hapoel Beer Sheva a 12.7% chance of the title and Hapoel Tel Aviv 11.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva against 1.28 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Hapoel Beer Sheva's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.08 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
How the model reaches 39% for Hapoel Beer Sheva to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hapoel Beer Sheva to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Hapoel Beer Sheva's ratings take away 11 points and Hapoel Tel Aviv's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Hapoel Beer Sheva's ratings28%−11
- Hapoel Tel Aviv's ratings39%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Beer Sheva at home · Hapoel Tel Aviv away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Beer Sheva 7, Hapoel Tel Aviv 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- at Beşiktaş26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 19%
- at Maccabi Netanya28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 58%
- vs Maccabi Netanya1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 54%
- at Bnei Sakhnin5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.