Newcastle Jets
vs
Wellington Phoenix
A-League prediction
Our model says: Newcastle Jets 2–1 Wellington Phoenix
The model makes it 53% Newcastle Jets, 22% draw, 25% Wellington Phoenix — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Newcastle Jets 2.42, Wellington Phoenix 1.50.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Newcastle Jets: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Newcastle Jets 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended Newcastle Jets 4–1 Wellington Phoenix.
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Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newcastle Jets at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets
- D2-2away to Central Coast Mariners17 October 2026
Wellington Phoenix
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where they stand. Wellington Phoenix has not started the league season yet. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
- 23 January 2026Newcastle Jets 4–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 14 December 2025Wellington Phoenix 1–3 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 6 April 2025Newcastle Jets 1–2 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 28 December 2024Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 17 September 2024Wellington Phoenix 0–1 Newcastle JetsFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2024Newcastle Jets 1–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
The two sides
Newcastle Jets carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.2 for Wellington Phoenix. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.50 for Wellington Phoenix. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newcastle Jets rate 0.73 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wellington Phoenix rate 0.55 and 2.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newcastle Jets the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Newcastle Jets against 1.50 for Wellington Phoenix. Newcastle Jets's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.02 for Wellington Phoenix.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Newcastle Jets
- vs SHANGHAI SIPG3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 49%
- at Perth Glory7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 47%
- vs Kashiwa Reysol24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
Wellington Phoenix
- at Auckland FC7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 22%
- vs Macarthur FC22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 35%
- vs Adelaide United6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.