Macarthur FC
vs
Western Sydney Wanderers
A-League prediction
Our model says: Macarthur FC 2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers
The model makes it 45% Macarthur FC, 25% draw, 30% Western Sydney Wanderers — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Macarthur FC 1.84, Western Sydney Wanderers 1.39.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Macarthur FC are 2nd on 3 points from 1 game; Western Sydney Wanderers are 6th on 1 point from 1 game — A-League.
- Last 6 meetings: Western Sydney Wanderers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Macarthur FC 0–4 Western Sydney Wanderers.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Macarthur FC at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Macarthur FC
- W2-1Perth Glory17 October 2026
Western Sydney Wanderers
- D0-0away to Sydney FC16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Macarthur FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
- 28 February 2026Macarthur FC 0–4 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 1 January 2026Western Sydney Wanderers 0–1 Macarthur FCA-League
- 1 November 2025Macarthur FC 1–1 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 3 May 2025Macarthur FC 1–3 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 16 February 2025Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 Macarthur FCA-League
- 1 January 2025Western Sydney Wanderers 2–3 Macarthur FCA-League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Macarthur FC carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.16 for Western Sydney Wanderers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Macarthur FC and 1.39 for Western Sydney Wanderers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macarthur FC rate 0.61 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Western Sydney Wanderers rate 0.46 and 1.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Macarthur FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Macarthur FC against 1.39 for Western Sydney Wanderers. Macarthur FC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.84 for Western Sydney Wanderers.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Macarthur FC
- vs Brisbane Roar8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 43%
- at Wellington Phoenix22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 41%
- vs Melbourne City27 Nov · A-Leaguewin 40%
- at Adelaide United11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
Western Sydney Wanderers
- at Melbourne City7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 30%
- vs Adelaide United20 Nov · A-Leaguewin 28%
- vs Perth Glory5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 34%
- vs Wellington Phoenix13 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.