Rubio NU
vs
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Rubio NU 1–2 Cerro Porteno
The model makes it 29% Rubio NU, 26% draw, 45% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rubio NU 1.28, Cerro Porteno 1.70.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Cerro Porteno: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rubio NU's rating is built from 19 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Cerro Porteno's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Rubio NU are 10th on 17 points from 19 games; Cerro Porteno are 7th on 28 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Rubio NU have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo Recoleta.
- Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 September 2026, ended Cerro Porteno 2–1 Rubio NU.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rubio NU vs Cerro Porteno
Has the model earned this number?
Cerro Porteno at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rubio NU vs Cerro Porteno
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D2-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo9 November 2026
- L0-5Sportivo Luqueno5 November 2026
- W4-2away to Sportivo Trinidense30 October 2026
- L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D1-1Deportivo Recoleta8 November 2026
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion4 November 2026
- L0-2Olimpia1 November 2026
- W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
- D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026
What these results say
- Rubio NU conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cerro Porteno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rubio NU | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 17 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Cerro Porteno
- 30 September 2026Cerro Porteno 2–1 Rubio NUCopa Paraguay
- 19 September 2026Cerro Porteno 1–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 May 2026Cerro Porteno 2–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 18 March 2026Rubio NU 2–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 3 August 2022Rubio NU 1–0 Cerro PortenoCopa Paraguay
- 18 November 2017Rubio NU 0–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Cerro Porteno
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz43
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti80
- J. Morel50
- D. Rodríguez45
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Rubio NU against 1.70 for Cerro Porteno. Rubio NU's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.31 for Cerro Porteno.
How the model reaches 45% for Cerro Porteno to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cerro Porteno to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Rubio NU's ratings add 8 points and Cerro Porteno's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Rubio NU's ratings37%+8
- Cerro Porteno's ratings45%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rubio NU at home · Cerro Porteno away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Rubio NU 19, Cerro Porteno 19.
Cerro Porteno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Rubio NU have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.