Luxembourg vs Iceland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Luxembourg, 31% draw, 26% Iceland — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Luxembourg at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Luxembourg vs Iceland
Line-ups
- 1A. MorisG
- 18L. JansD
- 3E. MahmutovićD
- 13D. CarlsonD
- 4F. BohnertD
- 19M. OlesenM
- 11V. ThillM
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
- 16L. BarreiroM
- 17H. KadamaniM
- 7Aiman DardariF
- 2E. DžogovićD
- 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
- 14E. VeigaD
- 21S. ThillM
- 5V. SelimovićD
- 10T. RupilM
- 12T. Pereira CardosoG
- 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
- 23T. KipsG
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 4V. PálssonD
- 16S. ÞórðarsonD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 2L. TómassonD
- 19M. EllertssonM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 10G. SigurðssonM
- 7H. HaraldssonM
- 22A. GuðjohnsenF
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 13A. EinarssonG
- 17A. GunnarssonM
- 20Þ. HelgasonM
- 15K. IngasonF
- 23H. MagnússonD
- 1R. RúnarssonG
- 21A. SigurðssonM
- 11J. ÞorsteinssonF
- 5Í. ÞorvaldssonF
Form going into Luxembourg vs Iceland
Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026
Iceland
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Estonia26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Luxembourg vs Iceland
- 13 October 2023Iceland 1–1 LuxembourgEuro Championship - Qualification
- 8 September 2023Luxembourg 3–1 IcelandEuro Championship - Qualification
Leading scorers: Luxembourg and Iceland
Luxembourg
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Iceland
GoalsAssists
- O. Óskarsson32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Iceland won 3–0 at Luxembourg. The model had leaned towards a win for Luxembourg at 43% and given a win for Iceland 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen 13' for Iceland, Orri Steinn Óskarsson 39' for Iceland, Victor Pálsson 73' for Iceland.