29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Slovenia vs North Macedonia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana
Referee: Andrea Colombo
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Slovenia, 29% draw, 23% North Macedonia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slovenia at 48% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slovenia99%Draw1%North Macedonia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

51'
Andrej Stojchevski
⚽Sandi Lovricassist: Tjas Begic
55'
57'
Jani Atanasov
61'
🔁Dimitar Mitrovskiout: Hristijan Maleski
61'
🔁Agon Eleziout: Enis Bardhi
🔁Tjas Begicout: Aljosa Matko
71'
🔁Zan Vipotnikout: Žan Celar
71'
🔁Sandi Lovricout: Mark Zabukovnik
71'
71'
🔁Anes Meljichiout: Visar Musliu
71'
🔁Jani Atanasovout: Luka·Stankovski
Aljosa Matko
78'
80'
🔁Din Alomerovicout: Bojan Miovski
⚽Aljosa Matkoassist: Danijel Sturm
82'
🔁Adam Gnezda Čerinout: Timi Elsnik
85'
🔁Vanja Drkusicout: David Zec
85'

Match stats — Slovenia vs North Macedonia

52%Possession48%
16Shots10
5On target1
6Corners3

Line-ups

Slovenia 5-4-1
  • 1J. OblakG
  • 2Ž. KarničnikD
  • 23D. BrekaloD
  • 6J. BijolD
  • 21V. DrkušićD
  • 13E. JanžaD
  • 7T. BegićM
  • 8S. LovrićM
  • 22A. ČerinM
  • 15D. ŠturmM
  • 18Z. VipotnikF
Substitutes
  • 11Ž. CelarF
  • 17D. ZecD
  • 4M. ZabukovnikM
  • 12M. VidovšekG
  • 14T. SvetlinM
  • 9A. ŠporarF
  • 20A. MatkoF
  • 3J. BalkovecD
  • 10T. ElšnikM
Coach: B. Cesar
North Macedonia 4-2-3-1
  • 23S. DimitrievskiG
  • 4A. StojchevskiD
  • 14M. MladenovskiD
  • 13Anes MeljichiD
  • 3S. AlomeroviсD
  • 16M. GashtarovM
  • 21J. AtanasovM
  • 20D. MitrovskiM
  • 15A. EleziM
  • 7E. ElmasM
  • 17A. OmeragikjF
Substitutes
  • 1D. TaleskiG
  • 10E. BardhiM
  • 12D. ShishkovskiG
  • 11E. RastoderF
  • 6V. MusliuD
  • 9B. MiovskiF
  • 22H. MaleskiF
  • 19L. DorievF
  • 18G. DzhekovD
Coach: G. Sedloski

Form going into Slovenia vs North Macedonia

Slovenia

  • D0-0Scotland26 September 2026

North Macedonia

  • L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Slovenia311132+14
4North Macedonia300307-70

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slovenia vs North Macedonia

  • 29 September 2026Slovenia 2–0 North MacedoniaUEFA Nations League
  • 1 June 2021North Macedonia 1–1 SloveniaFriendlies
  • 10 October 2019North Macedonia 2–1 SloveniaEuro Championship
  • 24 March 2019Slovenia 1–1 North MacedoniaEuro Championship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.