Los Angeles FC
vs
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles FC 2–1 Minnesota United FC
The model makes it 54% Los Angeles FC, 24% draw, 22% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 2.07, Minnesota United FC 1.15.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Edge to Los Angeles FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Los Angeles FC's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and Minnesota United FC's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,512 matches.
Key facts
- Los Angeles FC are 6th on 46 points from 31 games; Minnesota United FC are 13th on 34 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Los Angeles FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to New York City FC.
- Minnesota United FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to St. Louis City.
- Last 6 meetings: Los Angeles FC 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Minnesota United FC 0–1 Los Angeles FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 54% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
- D1-1away to New York City FC17 October 2026
- W3-1Austin15 October 2026
- D1-1Vancouver Whitecaps11 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
Minnesota United FC
- W3-2St. Louis City17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Colorado Rapids15 October 2026
- D2-2Houston Dynamo11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Minnesota United FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 46 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Minnesota United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC
- 25 April 2026Minnesota United FC 0–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025Minnesota United FC 0–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 February 2025Los Angeles FC 1–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Los Angeles FC 2–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2024Minnesota United FC 2–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2023Los Angeles FC 5–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga175
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah173
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Los Angeles FC carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.44 for Minnesota United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Los Angeles FC and 1.15 for Minnesota United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Minnesota United FC rate 0.74 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 1.15 for Minnesota United FC. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.69 for Minnesota United FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Los Angeles FC at home · Minnesota United FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Los Angeles FC 31, Minnesota United FC 30.
Minnesota United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); Los Angeles FC have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Los Angeles FC
- at Seattle Sounders8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 36%
Minnesota United FC
- vs San Jose Earthquakes8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.