New England Revolution
vs
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New England Revolution 1–2 Inter Miami
The model makes it 32% New England Revolution, 23% draw, 45% Inter Miami — fair odds of 3.13, 4.35 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: New England Revolution 1.71, Inter Miami 2.12.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Edge to Inter Miami: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. New England Revolution's rating is built from 64 MLS matches and Inter Miami's from 70, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,512 matches.
Key facts
- New England Revolution are 3rd on 52 points from 30 games; Inter Miami are 2nd on 55 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Chicago Fire.
- Inter Miami are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atlanta United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Miami 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Inter Miami 1–1 New England Revolution.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: New England Revolution vs Inter Miami
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 45% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into New England Revolution vs Inter Miami
New England Revolution
- W1-0Chicago Fire17 October 2026
- W3-2away to FC Cincinnati14 October 2026
- L0-3Seattle Sounders10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
Inter Miami
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC17 October 2026
- W2-0New York City FC14 October 2026
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
What these results say
- New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | +8 | 52 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | +22 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Inter Miami
- 25 April 2026Inter Miami 1–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 4 October 2025Inter Miami 4–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 9 July 2025New England Revolution 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Inter Miami 6–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2024New England Revolution 1–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 10 June 2023New England Revolution 3–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Inter Miami
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 49 league goals as a side.
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2512
- L. Suárez146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
New England Revolution carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.78 for Inter Miami. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for New England Revolution and 2.12 for Inter Miami. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New England Revolution rate 0.69 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Miami rate 1.12 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for New England Revolution against 2.12 for Inter Miami. New England Revolution's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1.35 for Inter Miami.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New England Revolution at home · Inter Miami away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New England Revolution 29, Inter Miami 29.
New England Revolution score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Inter Miami have let in 11 there.
Inter Miami score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); New England Revolution have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
New England Revolution
- at Orlando City SC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 33%
Inter Miami
- vs Charlotte7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.