Portland Timbers
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Portland Timbers 2–1 Houston Dynamo
The model makes it 38% Portland Timbers, 28% draw, 34% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.46, Houston Dynamo 1.35.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 904 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Portland Timbers's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and Houston Dynamo's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,512 matches.
Key facts
- Portland Timbers are 11th on 34 points from 30 games; Houston Dynamo are 5th on 47 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Portland Timbers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Colorado Rapids.
- Houston Dynamo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Dallas.
- Last 6 meetings: Houston Dynamo 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Houston Dynamo 3–2 Portland Timbers.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 38% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 3,310 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers
- D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy15 October 2026
- D3-3away to Sporting Kansas City11 October 2026
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
- D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026
- D3-3away to San Diego15 October 2026
- D2-2away to Minnesota United FC11 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
What these results say
- Portland Timbers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 34 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Portland Timbers
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 42% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo
- 15 March 2026Houston Dynamo 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2025Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2025Portland Timbers 3–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Portland Timbers 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2024Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2023Portland Timbers 1–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 51 league goals as a side.
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portland Timbers carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.51 for Houston Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.35 for Houston Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portland Timbers rate 0.67 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Houston Dynamo rate 0.58 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Houston Dynamo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portland Timbers a 0% chance of the title and Houston Dynamo 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Portland Timbers against 1.35 for Houston Dynamo. Portland Timbers's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.19 for Houston Dynamo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portland Timbers at home · Houston Dynamo away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Portland Timbers 30, Houston Dynamo 30.
Portland Timbers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Houston Dynamo have let in 11 there.
Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Portland Timbers have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Portland Timbers
- at Austin8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
Houston Dynamo
- vs St. Louis City8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.