Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 0-2 CSKA Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Lokomotiv Sofia, 27% draw, 43% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Line-ups
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 91R. BidoungaD
- 3K. KostovD
- 6EirôD
- 31K. StanoevM
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 7S. DelevF
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 77Caue CaruzoF
- 29A. AralicaF
- 8I. YordanovM
- 21K. ChachevM
- 22R. DaskalovD
- 5E. DostM
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 42N. NeychevM
- 17M. PapazovF
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 37B. CotterD
- 14T. IvanovD
- 4Dinis AlmeidaD
- 17Á. MartinoD
- 99J. Eto'oM
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 7M. EbongM
- 38Léo PereiraF
- 9S. GodoyF
- 28I. PittasF
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 5J. GbaminM
- 67C. ItuM
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 2PastorD
- 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
- 8S. SensiM
- 94I. Solet BomawokoM
- 19A. YordanovM
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
CSKA Sofia
First League
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
- 8 March 2026CSKA Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 13 December 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv SofiaCup
- 27 September 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 2 April 2025CSKA Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 16 September 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Sofia and CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CSKA Sofia won 2–0 at Lokomotiv Sofia. The model had made a win for CSKA Sofia its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: James Eto'o 38' for CSKA Sofia, Joel·Zwarts 84' for CSKA Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.