Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 30% Lokomotiv Sofia, 27% draw, 43% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.40, CSKA Sofia 1.92.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Lokomotiv Sofia wins, grey are draws, red are CSKA Sofia wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
- L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
- 8 March 2026CSKA Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 13 December 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv SofiaCup
- 27 September 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 2 April 2025CSKA Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 16 September 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 30 March 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.49 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.92 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.56 in attack and 2.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.74 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lokomotiv Sofia a 0% chance of the title and CSKA Sofia 16.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.92 for CSKA Sofia. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.54 for CSKA Sofia.