Slavia Sofia
vs
CSKA 1948
First League prediction
Our model says: Slavia Sofia 1–0 CSKA 1948
The model makes it 46% Slavia Sofia, 30% draw, 24% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.48, CSKA 1948 0.77.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Slavia Sofia wins, grey are draws, red are CSKA 1948 wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Sofia at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948
Slavia Sofia
- D0-0Spartak Varna13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia2 September 2026
- D1-1Septemvri Sofia28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ludogorets22 August 2026
CSKA 1948
- W2-1Dunav Ruse12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Septemvri Sofia23 August 2026
- W4-1Cherno More Varna14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948
- 27 February 2026Slavia Sofia 0–2 CSKA 1948First League
- 13 December 2025Slavia Sofia 2–3 CSKA 1948Cup
- 15 September 2025CSKA 1948 3–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 2 May 2025Slavia Sofia 0–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 17 February 2025Slavia Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 25 August 2024CSKA 1948 2–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Slavia Sofia and CSKA 1948
Slavia Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
CSKA 1948
- Frédéric Maciel1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slavia Sofia carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.31 for CSKA 1948. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Slavia Sofia and 0.77 for CSKA 1948. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Sofia rate 0.62 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA 1948 rate 0.48 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA 1948, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slavia Sofia a 0% chance of the title and CSKA 1948 2.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Sofia the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Slavia Sofia against 0.77 for CSKA 1948. Slavia Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.47 for CSKA 1948.