18 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948 First League prediction & result

Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Slavia Sofia 1-2 CSKA 1948.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Slavia Sofia, 30% draw, 23% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slavia Sofia at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slavia Sofia0%Draw5%CSKA 194895%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
Lasha Dvali
Ivan Minchev
30'
40'
Aleks Bozhev
⚽Ivan Minchev
41'
46'
🔁Borislav Tsonevout: Elias Correa Franco
46'
🔁Hector Cuellarout: Andre Hoffmann
50'
⚽Georgi Rusev
🔁vasil kazaldzhievout: umaro balde
65'
🔁Emil Stoevout: Roberto Iliev Raychev
65'
🔁Jordan Semedo Varelaout: Lazar Marin
65'
71'
🔁Mamadou Dialloout: Atanas Iliev
71'
🔁Frederic Macielout: Jules Meyer
74'
🔁Ognjen Gasevicout: Dragan Grivić
🔁Kristiyan Stoyanovout: mouhamed dosso
75'
mouhamed dosso
77'
85'
⚽
•Vladimir Nikolov
87'

Match stats — Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948

46%Possession54%
10Shots15
5On target5
6Corners2

Line-ups

Slavia Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99I. AndonovG
  • 20J. Semedo VarelaD
  • 5David MalembanaD
  • 4N. SavićD
  • 87D. FerraressoD
  • 71K. StoyanovD
  • 95V. MiletićM
  • 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
  • 73I. MinchevM
  • 77E. StoevF
  • 10V. NikolovM
Substitutes
  • 6B. TodorovM
  • 27Umaro BaldéF
  • 9Y. BornosuzovF
  • 11M. DossoM
  • 3M. GeorgievD
  • 19E. GogevF
  • 24L. MarinD
  • 63L. NtumbaG
  • 1G. PetkovG
Coach: Ratko Dostanic
CSKA 1948 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. BozhevG
  • 2D. MedinaD
  • 33H. CuellarD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 22O. GaševićF
  • 8M. ZemzemiM
  • 34P. VitanovM
  • 67Frédéric MacielF
  • 10B. TsonevM
  • 11G. RusevF
  • 93M. DialloF
Substitutes
  • 77Elias FrancoF
  • 96D. GrivićD
  • 4A. HoffmannD
  • 9A. IlievF
  • 70K. IlievD
  • 23F. KrebsM
  • 1P. MarinovG
  • 30J. MeyerM
  • 20B. SobreroM
Coach: Ognyan Mladenov

Form going into Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948

Slavia Sofia

First League

  • D0-0Spartak Varna13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026

CSKA 1948

First League

  • W2-1Dunav Ruse12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Slavia Sofia1226499012
4CSKA 1948128132513+1225

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948

  • 27 February 2026Slavia Sofia 0–2 CSKA 1948First League
  • 13 December 2025Slavia Sofia 2–3 CSKA 1948Cup
  • 15 September 2025CSKA 1948 3–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 2 May 2025Slavia Sofia 0–1 CSKA 1948First League
  • 17 February 2025Slavia Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948First League

Leading scorers: Slavia Sofia and CSKA 1948

Slavia Sofia

No player in First League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

  • Frédéric Maciel30
  • Elias Franco20
  • A. Iliev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA 1948 won 2–1 at Slavia Sofia. The model had leaned towards a win for Slavia Sofia at 47% and given a win for CSKA 1948 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ivan Minchev 41' for Slavia Sofia, Georgi Rusev 50' for CSKA 1948, 85' for CSKA 1948.

How the call on Slavia Sofia v CSKA 1948 has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Slavia Sofia's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Slavia Sofia win47%▲ +8
  2. Draw30%=
  3. CSKA 1948 win23%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.