Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Arda Kardzhali, 24% draw, 19% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arda Kardzhali at 57% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Line-ups
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 21V. VelevD
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 6V. PopovD
- 80L. KotevM
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 99B. KaragarenF
- 91S. IvanovF
- 10S. KovachevF
- 16P. BachevF
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 11A. KabovF
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 9G. NikolovF
- 18S. VasilevD
- 39A. VutovM
- 31D. HristovG
- 50E. TombakD
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 37V. KerchevD
- 26João BandaróD
- 29B. BeyhanM
- 99I. BounaasM
- 7M. BarandasF
- 11M. AchiM
- 8A. DonchevF
- 19G. LazarovF
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 34K. MihaylovM
- 9J. PadillaF
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 17I. TasevF
- 14A. TodorovD
- 81K. TomovG
- 93G. VentsislavovD
- 23M. BanevM
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
First League
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
Cherno More Varna
First League
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
- 25 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 3 May 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 4 March 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 12 December 2025Cherno More Varna 0–3 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 22 September 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
GoalsAssists
- B. Karagaren11
- S. Kovachev10
- A. Kabov10
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Arda Kardzhali at 57% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: georgi lazarov 70' for Cherno More Varna, Antonio Vutov 74' for Arda Kardzhali. Sent off: Zhivko Atanasov (Cherno More Varna) 87'.
How the call on Arda Kardzhali v Cherno More Varna has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Arda Kardzhali's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Arda Kardzhali win57%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Cherno More Varna win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.