Arda Kardzhali
vs
Cherno More Varna
First League prediction
Our model says: Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Cherno More Varna
The model makes it 57% Arda Kardzhali, 24% draw, 19% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Arda Kardzhali 2.38, Cherno More Varna 0.89.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Arda Kardzhali wins, grey are draws, red are Cherno More Varna wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arda Kardzhali at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026
- W3-1Lokomotiv Sofia17 August 2026
Cherno More Varna
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
- W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
- 25 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 3 May 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 4 March 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 12 December 2025Cherno More Varna 0–3 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 22 September 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 18 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
The two sides
Arda Kardzhali carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.03 for Cherno More Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.89 for Cherno More Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arda Kardzhali rate 0.53 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cherno More Varna rate 0.52 and 2.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arda Kardzhali a 1.1% chance of the title and Cherno More Varna 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali against 0.89 for Cherno More Varna. Arda Kardzhali's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.76 for Cherno More Varna.