Regular Season - 9 · 14 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result

Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Ludogorets 2-1 Septemvri Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Ludogorets, 28% draw, 25% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Ludogorets 1.88, Septemvri Sofia 1.05.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia

56%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ludogorets at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ludogorets97%Draw3%Septemvri Sofia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
🔁Sebastian Wadeout: Valentine Ozornwafor
•Son
19'
⚽Ivajlo Čočev
21'
50'
Kubrat Onasci
Son
56'
58'
Bozidar Krasimirov Penchev
🔁Caio Vidal Rochaout: Erick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo
58'
⚽Aguibou Camara
59'
62'
Galin Ivanov
🔁Ivajlo Čočevout: Filip Kaloc
68'
🔁Sonout: Joel Andersson
68'
🔁Bernard Tekpeteyout: aleksandar marinov
68'
76'
🔁edney ribeiroout: Andre Liberal
81'
⚽Frantzety Herard
87'
🔁Yoan Baurenskiout: Stoyan Stoichkov
🔁aleksandar marinovout: Edvin Kurtulus
88'

Match stats — Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia

47%Possession53%
14Shots6
8On target2
5Corners5

Line-ups

Ludogorets 4-1-4-1
  • 39H. BonmannG
  • 3A. NedyalkovD
  • 42S. ShishkovD
  • 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
  • 17SonM
  • 23Deroy DuarteM
  • 11Caio VidalF
  • 20A. CamaraM
  • 18I. ChochevM
  • 37B. TekpeteyF
  • 12Rwan CruzF
Substitutes
  • 5G. TerzievD
  • 2J. AnderssonD
  • 77Erick MarcusF
  • 13I. GrbićG
  • 26F. KaločM
  • 15E. KurtulusD
  • 40A. MarinovF
  • 67A. PanayotovG
  • 22M. PolendakovD
Coach: T. Reis
Septemvri Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. IvanovG
  • 13K. ÖnaşçıM
  • 4M. HristovD
  • 5Y. BaurenskiM
  • 3Sebastian WadeD
  • 6Pedro FerreiraM
  • 8B. PenchevM
  • 19Pedro IgorF
  • 33G. IvanovM
  • 29F. HerardF
  • 7E. RibeiroF
Substitutes
  • 30Viktor DobrevM
  • 11A. DzhamovF
  • 15P. GospodinovD
  • 10N. IlievM
  • 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
  • 16V. MihaylovM
  • 26V. OzornwaforD
  • 1A. RadkovG
  • 28S. StoichkovF
Coach: Simão Freitas

Form going into Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia

Ludogorets

  • W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
  • D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
  • W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026

Septemvri Sofia

  • L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
  • W1-0CSKA 194823 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Spartak Varna17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Ludogorets9720167+923
10Septemvri Sofia9225815-78

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia

  • 14 September 2026Ludogorets 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 10 July 2026Ludogorets 1–0 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 December 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–3 LudogoretsCup
  • 23 November 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–2 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 19 July 2025Ludogorets 5–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 3 March 2025Ludogorets 0–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.88 goals for Ludogorets and 1.05 for Septemvri Sofia; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ivajlo Čočev 21' (Ludogorets), Aguibou Camara 59' (Ludogorets), Frantzety Herard 81' (Septemvri Sofia).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Ludogorets against 1.05 for Septemvri Sofia. Ludogorets's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.06 for Septemvri Sofia.