Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Ludogorets 2-1 Septemvri Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Ludogorets, 27% draw, 26% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia
Line-ups
- 39H. BonmannG
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
- 17SonM
- 23Deroy DuarteM
- 11Caio VidalF
- 20A. CamaraM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 37B. TekpeteyF
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 5G. TerzievD
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 77Erick MarcusF
- 13I. GrbićG
- 26F. KaločM
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 40A. MarinovF
- 67A. PanayotovG
- 22M. PolendakovD
- 12V. IvanovG
- 13K. ÖnaşçıM
- 4M. HristovD
- 5Y. BaurenskiM
- 3Sebastian WadeD
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 8B. PenchevM
- 19Pedro IgorF
- 33G. IvanovM
- 29F. HerardF
- 7E. RibeiroF
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 11A. DzhamovF
- 15P. GospodinovD
- 10N. IlievM
- 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
- 16V. MihaylovM
- 26V. OzornwaforD
- 1A. RadkovG
- 28S. StoichkovF
Form going into Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia
Ludogorets
First League
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
Septemvri Sofia
First League
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 26 |
| 14 | Septemvri Sofia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia
- 10 July 2026Ludogorets 1–0 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 15 December 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–3 LudogoretsCup
- 23 November 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–2 LudogoretsFirst League
- 19 July 2025Ludogorets 5–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 3 March 2025Ludogorets 0–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia
Ludogorets
GoalsAssists
- B. Tekpetey20
- Rwan Cruz12
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ludogorets beat Septemvri Sofia 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ludogorets at 47%. The goals: Ivajlo Čočev 21' for Ludogorets, Aguibou Camara 59' for Ludogorets, Frantzety Herard 81' for Septemvri Sofia.
How the call on Ludogorets v Septemvri Sofia has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Ludogorets's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Ludogorets win47%▼ −5
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Septemvri Sofia win26%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.