Rodina Moskva
vs
Rubin
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Rodina Moskva 0–1 Rubin
The model makes it 35% Rodina Moskva, 29% draw, 36% Rubin — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Rodina Moskva 1.33, Rubin 1.35.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Rodina Moskva wins, grey are draws, red are Rubin wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rubin at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rodina Moskva vs Rubin
Rodina Moskva
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
- D3-3Akron15 August 2026
Rubin
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Rostov15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
| 8 | Rubin | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin
- 4 August 2026Rodina Moskva 5–0 RubinCup
- 22 February 2024Rubin 1–4 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
- 3 June 2023Rodina Moskva 0–0 RubinFirst League
- 17 July 2022Rubin 2–0 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and Rubin
Rodina Moskva
- A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assists
- Iker Pozo2 goals1 assists
Rubin
- J. Siwe3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rodina Moskva carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.28 for Rubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.35 for Rubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rodina Moskva rate 0.48 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rubin rate 0.54 and 1.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rodina Moskva a 0% chance of the title and Rubin 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rubin the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rodina Moskva against 1.35 for Rubin. Rodina Moskva's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.7 for Rubin.