Rodina Moskva vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Rodina Moskva 1-1 Rubin.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Rodina Moskva, 29% draw, 36% Rubin — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rubin at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rodina Moskva vs Rubin
Line-ups
- 13S. VolkovG
- 26A. MeshchaninovD
- 50Rodrigo BecãoD
- 75M. NadéD
- 80S. BessmertnyM
- 5A. EgorychevM
- 38L. MusaevM
- 20D. MachadoM
- 11B. MansillaF
- 7G. OnugkhaF
- 10Y. ReynaF
- 1S. AydarovG
- 18M. AbdusalamovF
- 95K. CissokoF
- 49I. DyatlovD
- 6R. FishchenkoM
- 77A. GharibyanF
- 55M. KrižanD
- 9A. MaksimenkoF
- 88A. SokolD
- 38E. StaverG
- 12A. ArroyoD
- 3D. MaldonadoD
- 5I. VujačićD
- 13J. UrozovD
- 51I. RozhkovD
- 71I. SamoshnikovM
- 22V. HodžaM
- 6U. IwuM
- 8B. JočićM
- 43J. SiweF
- 2E. TeslenkoD
- 14I. SaavedraM
- 4K. NizhegorodovD
- 25A. NigmatullinG
- 59D. N. MotorinF
- 98N. LobovD
- 44D. KuznetsovM
- 86N. KoretsG
- 18M. IgnatjevD
Form going into Rodina Moskva vs Rubin
Rodina Moskva
Premier League
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
Rubin
Premier League
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 9 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin
- 4 August 2026Rodina Moskva 5–0 RubinCup
- 22 February 2024Rubin 1–4 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
- 3 June 2023Rodina Moskva 0–0 RubinFirst League
- 17 July 2022Rubin 2–0 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and Rubin
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
Rubin
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rodina Moskva and Rubin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rubin at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Deiver Machado 79' for Rodina Moskva, Anderson Arroyo 82' for Rubin.
How the call on Rodina Moskva v Rubin has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, up 3 points.
- Rodina Moskva win35%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +3
- Rubin win36%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.