Dunav Ruse
vs
Botev Vratsa
First League prediction
Our model says: Dunav Ruse 1–0 Botev Vratsa
The model makes it 35% Dunav Ruse, 30% draw, 35% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dunav Ruse 1.26, Botev Vratsa 1.27.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dunav Ruse vs Botev Vratsa
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Dunav Ruse wins, grey are draws, red are Botev Vratsa wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunav Ruse at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Botev Vratsa
Dunav Ruse
- L1-2away to CSKA 194812 September 2026
- L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Cherno More Varna21 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026
Botev Vratsa
- D0-0Levski Sofia13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Arda Kardzhali31 August 2026
- W1-0Botev Plovdiv24 August 2026
- L0-5away to CSKA Sofia16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs Botev Vratsa
- 6 July 2020Botev Vratsa 0–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 29 June 2020Dunav Ruse 1–3 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 29 February 2020Dunav Ruse 0–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 21 September 2019Botev Vratsa 0–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 11 November 2018Botev Vratsa 1–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
The two sides
Dunav Ruse carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.16 for Botev Vratsa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Dunav Ruse and 1.27 for Botev Vratsa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunav Ruse rate 0.46 in attack and 2.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Vratsa rate 0.41 and 1.69.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Botev Vratsa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunav Ruse the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Dunav Ruse against 1.27 for Botev Vratsa. Dunav Ruse's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.69 for Botev Vratsa.