Dunav Ruse vs Botev Vratsa First League prediction & result
Final score: Dunav Ruse 2-2 Botev Vratsa.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Dunav Ruse, 30% draw, 34% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunav Ruse at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dunav Ruse vs Botev Vratsa
Line-ups
- 33G. KitanovG
- 88D. TodorovD
- 5K. AntoniouD
- 4J. CabarcasD
- 2M. DilchovskiD
- 44V. VidakovićM
- 14R. ApostolovM
- 10K. BoychevM
- 11D. MinchevF
- 9Álex ValiñoF
- 23Jordan Layn Saint-LouisM
- 19S. StefanovM
- 39Andre AlvesD
- 36C. AppiahF
- 51I. BudinovD
- 24S. GavrilovM
- 18I. KeïtaF
- 69P. PepelyashevG
- 22S. PredevD
- 77A. SimeonovF
- 94M. OrlinovG
- 3S. SanyangD
- 4I. GoranovF
- 36M. StoevD
- 25A. BuchkovD
- 8A. StoyanovM
- 12I. YurukovM
- 97V. NaydenovF
- 7R. TsonevM
- 10J. GallegosM
- 79M. PetkovF
- 98L. VasilevG
- 24M. SmolenskiM
- 17S. MechevF
- 6A. KichukovM
- 81K. HadjiM
- 90F. GigovF
- 9D. GenovD
- 21M. DimitrovD
- 88L. BoyanovD
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Botev Vratsa
Dunav Ruse
First League
- L1-2away to CSKA 194812 September 2026
- L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
Botev Vratsa
First League
- D0-0Levski Sofia13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs Botev Vratsa
- 6 July 2020Botev Vratsa 0–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 29 June 2020Dunav Ruse 1–3 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 29 February 2020Dunav Ruse 0–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 21 September 2019Botev Vratsa 0–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
Leading scorers: Dunav Ruse and Botev Vratsa
Dunav Ruse
GoalsAssists
- I. Budinov11
- Andre Alves10
Botev Vratsa
No player in First League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dunav Ruse and Botev Vratsa drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunav Ruse at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: jordan louis saint 9' for Dunav Ruse, Alexander Valiño Navasal 36' for Dunav Ruse, Sainey Sanyang 45+3' for Botev Vratsa, Kassim Hadji 89' for Botev Vratsa.
How the call on Dunav Ruse v Botev Vratsa has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is Dunav Ruse's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Dunav Ruse win36%▼ −8
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Botev Vratsa win34%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.