Spartak Moscow
vs
Fakel
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Spartak Moscow 1–0 Fakel
The model makes it 51% Spartak Moscow, 28% draw, 21% Fakel — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.83, Fakel 0.81.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Spartak Moscow wins, grey are draws, red are Fakel wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Moscow at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spartak Moscow vs Fakel
Spartak Moscow
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Baltika16 August 2026
Fakel
- D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
- L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
- D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026
- L0-1away to CSKA Moscow15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 16 | Fakel | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel
- 4 May 2025Fakel 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 18 August 2024Spartak Moscow 3–0 FakelPremier League
- 10 March 2024Spartak Moscow 0–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 28 October 2023Fakel Voronezh 2–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 11 March 2023Spartak Moscow 3–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 19 October 2022Fakel Voronezh 1–2 Spartak MoscowCup
The two sides
Spartak Moscow carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.09 for Fakel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.81 for Fakel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Moscow rate 0.60 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fakel rate 0.40 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spartak Moscow a 17.9% chance of the title and Fakel 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Moscow the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Spartak Moscow against 0.81 for Fakel. Spartak Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.88 for Fakel.