16 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result

Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Spartak Moscow 1-0 Fakel.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Spartak Moscow, 28% draw, 23% Fakel — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Spartak Moscow at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Moscow7%Draw91%Fakel2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
🔁Maksim Turishchevout: Hodaifa El Mhassani
59'
Matvey Bardachev
🔁Mirlind Dakuout: Esequiel Barco
61'
🔁Marquinhosout: Igor Dmitriev
61'
64'
🔁Anton Kovalevout: Belajdi Pusi
64'
🔁Aleksandr Koksharovout: Nikolay Giorgobiani
66'
Albert Gabaraev
66'
Matvey Bardachev
🔁Daniil Denisovout: Danil Prutsev
75'
79'
🔁Butta Magomedovout: Axel Gnapi
79'
🔁Darko Todorovicout: Yuriy Zhuravlev
86'
Nikolay Giorgobiani
⚽Manfred Ugalde
90+1'

Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

75%Possession25%
26Shots2
5On target1
11Corners2

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 6S. BabićD
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 83Gedson FernandesM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 19M. DakuM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 62P. PolekhF
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 27I. DmitrievM
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 24Nikita MassalygaM
  • 17V. SausM
  • 40I. SorokinM
Coach: Carcedo
Fakel 3-4-3
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 17A. KovalevM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 55D. TodorovićM
  • 7M. TurishchevF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
  • 97B. MagomedovF
Substitutes
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 99N. GiorgobianiM
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 19B. PusiF
  • 11A. SutorminM
  • 20I. YurganovD
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko

Form going into Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

Spartak Moscow

Premier League

  • W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026

Fakel

Premier League

  • D2-2Baltika12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Spartak Moscow127232110+1123
16Fakel12138820-126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

  • 4 May 2025Fakel 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 18 August 2024Spartak Moscow 3–0 FakelPremier League
  • 10 March 2024Spartak Moscow 0–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 28 October 2023Fakel Voronezh 2–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Spartak Moscow 3–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League

Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and Fakel

Spartak Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • M. Daku51
  • M. Ugalde50

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spartak Moscow beat Fakel 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Spartak Moscow at 49%. The goal: Manfred Ugalde 90+1' for Spartak Moscow. Sent off: Matvey Bardachev (Fakel) 66'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.