FC Lugano
vs
FC St. Gallen
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Lugano 2–1 FC St. Gallen
The model makes it 44% FC Lugano, 28% draw, 28% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Lugano 1.73, FC St. Gallen 1.12.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Lugano wins, grey are draws, red are FC St. Gallen wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen
FC Lugano
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
- W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
FC St. Gallen
- L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Servette FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Grasshoppers2 September 2026
- L3-4FC Thun30 August 2026
- D2-2FC Luzern9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 5 | FC St. Gallen | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen
- 10 May 2026FC Lugano 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 17 March 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 26 November 2025FC Lugano 1–3 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 13 September 2025FC St. Gallen 1–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 13 April 2025FC Lugano 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 5 February 2025FC St. Gallen 2–1 FC LuganoSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC St. Gallen
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
- Y. Cimignani3 goals
FC St. Gallen
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Lugano carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.53 for FC St. Gallen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for FC Lugano and 1.12 for FC St. Gallen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Lugano rate 0.75 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Gallen rate 0.75 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Lugano a 64.3% chance of the title and FC St. Gallen 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Lugano against 1.12 for FC St. Gallen. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.42 for FC St. Gallen.