16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen Super League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Full time4 – 1

Final score: FC Lugano 4-1 FC St. Gallen.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% FC Lugano, 28% draw, 28% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Lugano at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Lugano99%Draw1%FC St. Gallen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Beckham Castroassist: Antonios Papadopoulos
4'
•Daniel Dos Santos Correia
4'
⚽Elias Pihlstrom
14'
Behruzjon Karimov
16'
⚽Elias Pihlstromassist: Joel Bichsel
28'
32'
Nevio Scherrer
⚽Behruzjon Karimovassist: Lars Lukas Mai
36'
40'
Lukas Daschner
45'
🔁Nevio Scherrerout: Andrin Hunziker
45'
🔁Lukas Daschnerout: Betim Fazliji
45'
🔁Carlo Boukhalfaout: Hugo Vandermersch
🔁Behruzjon Karimovout: Mattia Zanotti
45'
Elias Pihlstrom
47'
🔁Beckham Castroout: Albian Ajeti
55'
Uran Bislimi
58'
61'
🔁Joel Ruizout: Enoch owusu
67'
🔁Aliou Baldeout: Diego Besio
🔁Daniel Dos Santos Correiaout: Ahmed Kendouci
68'
71'
Chima Okoroji
74'
⚽Andrin Hunzikerassist: Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel
Albian Ajeti
77'
🔁Yanis Cimignaniout: Damian Kelvin
82'
🔁Uran Bislimiout: Hannes Delcroix
82'

Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen

49%Possession51%
12Shots21
8On target5
2Corners8

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-5-2
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 2B. KarimovM
  • 25U. BislimiM
  • 8A. GrgićM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 22B. CastroF
  • 24E. PihlströmF
Substitutes
  • 9A. AjetiF
  • 23G. AjdinM
  • 7E. AlioskiD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 30D. MoncadaF
  • 39C. NdiayeG
  • 46M. ZanottiD
Coach: M. Croci-Torti
FC St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. ZigiG
  • 3C. Kleine-BekelD
  • 4J. StanićD
  • 36C. OkorojiD
  • 10L. DaschnerM
  • 74J. RuizM
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 11C. BoukhalfaM
  • 7C. WitzigM
  • 70N. ScherrerF
  • 14A. BaldeF
Substitutes
  • 28H. VandermerschD
  • 47E. OwusuM
  • 9A. HunzikerF
  • 68M. HeydariD
  • 26T. GaalD
  • 23B. FazlijiM
  • 31D. BesioF
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
Coach: E. Maaßen

Form going into FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen

FC Lugano

Super League

  • D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026

FC St. Gallen

Super League

  • L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Lugano111010349+2531
6FC St. Gallen115151721-416

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen

  • 10 May 2026FC Lugano 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 17 March 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 26 November 2025FC Lugano 1–3 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 13 September 2025FC St. Gallen 1–0 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 13 April 2025FC Lugano 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC St. Gallen

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • D. Moncada51
  • Daniel Dos Santos41
  • H. Delcroix32

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

  • A. Balde31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano beat FC St. Gallen 4–1. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Beckham Castro 4' for FC Lugano, Elias Pihlstrom 14' for FC Lugano, Elias Pihlstrom 28' for FC Lugano, Behruzjon Karimov 36' for FC Lugano, Andrin Hunziker 74' for FC St. Gallen. Sent off: Elias Pihlstrom (FC Lugano) 47'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.