Puebla
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Puebla 1–0 Toluca
The model makes it 41% Puebla, 30% draw, 29% Toluca — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puebla 1.42, Toluca 1.04.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Puebla vs Toluca
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Puebla wins, grey are draws, red are Toluca wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puebla at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Puebla vs Toluca
Puebla
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
Toluca
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 2 | Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Toluca
- 31 January 2026Puebla 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 14 September 2025Toluca 3–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 15 March 2025Puebla 0–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 23 October 2024Toluca 5–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 27 January 2024Puebla 1–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 1 November 2023Toluca 0–1 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Toluca
Puebla
- E. Mustre3 goals1 assists
Toluca
- F. Viñas3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Puebla carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.63 for Toluca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Puebla and 1.04 for Toluca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puebla rate 0.68 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toluca rate 0.83 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Toluca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puebla a 3.5% chance of the title and Toluca 29.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puebla the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Puebla against 1.04 for Toluca. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.28 for Toluca.