Puebla vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 0-1 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Puebla, 30% draw, 29% Toluca — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puebla at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Toluca
Line-ups
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 20J. PachucaD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 21S. SanabriaM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 22C. BaltazarM
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 12I. MorenoM
- 8O. MorenoF
- 16A. RamírezM
- 25H. JuradoF
- 14E. ArmentaM
- 3A. HerreraM
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 4B. MéndezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. LópezD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 8N. CastroM
- 16F. ViñasM
- 10J. AnguloM
- 20J. GallardoM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 23O. VirgenF
- 7V. GuzmánM
- 15P. PérezM
- 11HelinhoF
- 3A. BriseñoD
- 184S. AcevesM
- 24F. ArceM
- 12R. BeltránG
- 29J. DíazM
Form going into Puebla vs Toluca
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
What these results say
- Puebla scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toluca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Toluca won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toluca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 16 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Toluca
- 31 January 2026Puebla 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 14 September 2025Toluca 3–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 15 March 2025Puebla 0–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 23 October 2024Toluca 5–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 27 January 2024Puebla 1–1 TolucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Toluca
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toluca won 1–0 at Puebla. The model had leaned towards a win for Puebla at 41% and given a win for Toluca 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: José Pachuca (own goal) 69' for Toluca.
How the call on Puebla v Toluca has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Puebla's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Puebla win41%▲ +5
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Toluca win29%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.