Regular Season - 14 · 27 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Grazer AK vs SCR Altach Bundesliga prediction

Merkur-Arena, Graz

Our model says: Grazer AK 1–0 SCR Altach

The model makes it 37% Grazer AK, 30% draw, 33% SCR Altach — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.22, SCR Altach 1.11.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 13 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Grazer AK's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and SCR Altach's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.

Key facts

Grazer AK are 10th on 10 points from 12 games; SCR Altach are 9th on 10 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
Grazer AK have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Austria Lustenau.
SCR Altach have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to TSV Hartberg.
Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 October 2026, ended Grazer AK 0–4 SCR Altach.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Grazer AK vs SCR Altach

48%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Grazer AK win Draw SCR Altach win

1–114%
1–011%
0–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–27%
2–07%

Scores read Grazer AK first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Grazer AK at 37%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Grazer AK vs SCR Altach

Grazer AK

Bundesliga

L1-2away to Austria Lustenau7 November 2026
L0-4TSV Hartberg30 October 2026
D1-1away to WSG Wattens24 October 2026
L1-6away to Sturm Graz18 October 2026
D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026

SCR Altach

Bundesliga

L0-3away to TSV Hartberg8 November 2026
D1-1Ried31 October 2026
W2-1Austria Vienna23 October 2026
L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg18 October 2026
W3-0Wolfsberger AC11 October 2026

What these results say

Grazer AK did not win any of these 5 matches.
Grazer AK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
SCR Altach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for SCR Altach had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	9	29	-20	10
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	11	20	-9	10

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs SCR Altach

27 October 2026Grazer AK 0–4 SCR AltachCup
12 September 2026SCR Altach 1–2 Grazer AKBundesliga
9 May 2026Grazer AK 2–2 SCR AltachBundesliga
11 April 2026SCR Altach 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
1 November 2025Grazer AK 3–1 SCR AltachBundesliga
24 August 2025SCR Altach 1–1 Grazer AKBundesliga

Leading scorers: Grazer AK and SCR Altach

Grazer AK

GoalsAssists

A. Hofleitner40

SCR Altach

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SCR Altach (ninth, with Grazer AK tenth), while our numbers lean to Grazer AK. Grazer AK rate 0.48 in attack and 1.84 in defence, SCR Altach 0.46 and 1.53 (lower is better in defence), so Grazer AK have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Grazer AK SCR Altach

0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.46

1.84 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.53

1.22 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Grazer AK the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Grazer AK against 1.11 for SCR Altach. Grazer AK's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.53 for SCR Altach.

Grazer AK carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.26 for SCR Altach. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Grazer AK to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Grazer AK to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Grazer AK's ratings take away 2 points and SCR Altach's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level41%−2
Grazer AK's ratings39%−2
SCR Altach's ratings37%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Grazer AKModelSCR Altach

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

68%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

41%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

21%

model, this match

0 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

48%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Grazer AKSCR Altach

12Matches12

2W 4D 6LRecord3W 1D 8L

9 0.8 per gameGoals scored11 0.9 per game

29 2.4 per gameGoals conceded20 1.7 per game

2 of 12Clean sheets1 of 12

6 of 12Failed to score6 of 12

1 of 1Penalties scored–

30 2.5 per gameYellow cards17 1.4 per game

1Red cards1

3-4-3 5×Usual shape3-4-3 7×

Grazer AK at home · SCR Altach away

5Played6

1W 3D 1LRecord0W 0D 6L

4–7Goals for – against0–13

2 of 5Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Grazer AKSCR Altach

Grazer AK are 10th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 12th so far); SCR Altach are 9th after 12 (between 3rd and 12th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Bundesliga matches this season: Grazer AK 12, SCR Altach 12.

Grazer AK scored 511120

SCR Altach conceded 625016

Grazer AK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); SCR Altach have let in 6 there.

SCR Altach scored 220312

Grazer AK conceded 447544

SCR Altach score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Grazer AK have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Grazer AK

at TSV Hartberg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 17%
vs Sturm Graz13 Dec · Bundesligawin 20%
at Austria Vienna23 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
vs WSG Wattens30 Jan · Bundesligawin 36%

SCR Altach

vs Red Bull Salzburg4 Dec · Bundesligawin 16%
at WSG Wattens12 Dec · Bundesligawin 28%
at Ried23 Jan · Bundesligawin 24%
vs Austria Lustenau30 Jan · Bundesligawin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.