America de Cali
vs
Águilas Doradas
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: America de Cali 1-0 Águilas Doradas.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% America de Cali, 28% draw, 20% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: America de Cali 1.78, Águilas Doradas 0.69.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 52% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas
Line-ups
- 1JeanG
- 13M. CastilloD
- 2M. TorresD
- 3D. RoseroD
- 14M. MinaD
- 5J. EscobarM
- 15R. CarrascalM
- 17J. LucumíM
- 10Y. GuzmánM
- 7J. MurilloM
- 21T. ÁngelF
- 9J. ValenciaF
- 23L. QuiñonesF
- 18Y. QuinteroM
- 24C. TovarD
- 88T. PalaciosF
- 12J. MontoyaG
- 6José CavadiaM
- 36Jhordy CamachoF
- 31J. AponzáM
- 1J. SotoG
- 20A. HigginsD
- 4A. MosqueraD
- 3J. OntanedaD
- 32J. MenaD
- 19F. LozanoM
- 6I. RojasM
- 24J. ÁvaloM
- 8A. RicaurteM
- 7E. ArízalasM
- 9A. VásquezF
- 34H. ArangoG
- 29T. BlandonF
- 30N. LaraD
- 13J. MelendezD
- 21R. MárquezF
- 10Junior Alexander Noguera MachucaM
- 15F. SuárezF
- 16M. RamírezF
Form going into America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas
America de Cali
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
- W3-0Alianza Valledupar3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares29 August 2026
Águilas Doradas
- D2-2Deportivo Pereira18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Nacional13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Internacional de Bogota6 September 2026
- D2-2Chico30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 24 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas
- 20 March 2026Águilas Doradas 0–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 27 July 2025America de Cali 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 30 April 2025Águilas Doradas 0–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 16 July 2024Águilas Doradas 1–2 America de CaliPrimera A
- 21 January 2024America de Cali 0–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 20 September 2023Águilas Doradas 2–2 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Águilas Doradas
America de Cali
- Y. Guzmán18 goals4 assists
Águilas Doradas
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto11 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.78 goals for America de Cali and 0.69 for Águilas Doradas; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Yeison Guzmán 27' (America de Cali).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for America de Cali against 0.69 for Águilas Doradas. America de Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.57 for Águilas Doradas.