Libertad Asuncion
vs
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Sportivo Luqueno
The model makes it 66% Libertad Asuncion, 19% draw, 15% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 1.52, 5.26 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Libertad Asuncion 2.74, Sportivo Luqueno 1.07.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Libertad Asuncion are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Libertad Asuncion are 3rd on 27 points from 14 games; Sportivo Luqueno are 9th on 13 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Club Guarani.
- Sportivo Luqueno are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Cerro Porteno.
- Last 6 meetings: Libertad Asuncion 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Libertad Asuncion.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad Asuncion at 66% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
- D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026
- L0-1Olimpia28 September 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano19 September 2026
- W2-0away to 2 de Mayo11 September 2026
Sportivo Luqueno
- L0-3Cerro Porteno10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sportivo Trinidense5 October 2026
- L0-1Club Guarani25 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpia13 September 2026
What these results say
- Libertad Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Luqueno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Luqueno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 27 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
- 16 August 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 May 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–3 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 7 March 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 13 September 2025Sportivo Luqueno 1–4 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 5 July 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 11 May 2025Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera152
- I. Ramirez33
Sportivo Luqueno
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Libertad Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.21 for Sportivo Luqueno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.74 goals for Libertad Asuncion and 1.07 for Sportivo Luqueno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Libertad Asuncion rate 0.78 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Luqueno rate 0.59 and 2.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Libertad Asuncion a 17% chance of the title and Sportivo Luqueno 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion against 1.07 for Sportivo Luqueno. Libertad Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.16 for Sportivo Luqueno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Libertad Asuncion at home · Sportivo Luqueno away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Libertad Asuncion 14, Sportivo Luqueno 14.
Libertad Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Sportivo Luqueno have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Libertad Asuncion
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%
- vs Cerro Porteno8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- vs Nacional Asuncion15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- at Rubio NU18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
Sportivo Luqueno
- vs Nacional Asuncion5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- at Rubio NU8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 25%
- vs 2 de Mayo15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- at Sportivo Ameliano18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.