Sportivo Trinidense
vs
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 Libertad Asuncion
The model makes it 47% Sportivo Trinidense, 25% draw, 28% Libertad Asuncion — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sportivo Trinidense 1.89, Libertad Asuncion 1.32.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sportivo Trinidense are 5th on 24 points from 14 games; Libertad Asuncion are 3rd on 27 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Trinidense are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Club Guarani.
- Last 6 meetings: Libertad Asuncion 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 August 2026, ended Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Sportivo Trinidense.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sportivo Trinidense at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
- D1-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo10 October 2026
- W3-2Sportivo Luqueno5 October 2026
- W2-1Cerro Porteno26 September 2026
- L0-1Club Guarani18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Recoleta12 September 2026
Libertad Asuncion
- D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026
- L0-1Olimpia28 September 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano19 September 2026
- W2-0away to 2 de Mayo11 September 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Trinidense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Trinidense.
- Libertad Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 24 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sportivo Trinidense
Chance to finish in the top four · 47% today
Libertad Asuncion
Chance to finish in the top four · 74% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion
- 10 August 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 April 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 15 February 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 October 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 26 July 2025Sportivo Trinidense 0–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 17 May 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Trinidense and Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
- L. Abreu31
- T. Rayer31
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera152
- I. Ramirez33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sportivo Trinidense carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.52 for Libertad Asuncion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 1.32 for Libertad Asuncion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sportivo Trinidense rate 0.77 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Libertad Asuncion rate 0.78 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Libertad Asuncion, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Trinidense a 5.7% chance of the title and Libertad Asuncion 17%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sportivo Trinidense the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense against 1.32 for Libertad Asuncion. Sportivo Trinidense's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.51 for Libertad Asuncion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sportivo Trinidense at home · Libertad Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Trinidense 14, Libertad Asuncion 14.
Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Libertad Asuncion have let in 2 there.
Libertad Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Sportivo Trinidense have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Trinidense
- at Nacional Asuncion29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
- vs Rubio NU5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 62%
- at 2 de Mayo8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 32%
- vs Sportivo Ameliano15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 56%
- at Olimpia18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 26%
Libertad Asuncion
- vs Sportivo Luqueno29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 66%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%
- vs Cerro Porteno8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- vs Nacional Asuncion15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- at Rubio NU18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.