Rubio NU
vs
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Rubio NU 1–2 Club Guarani
The model makes it 31% Rubio NU, 28% draw, 41% Club Guarani — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rubio NU 1.25, Club Guarani 1.50.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Club Guarani: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Rubio NU are 10th on 13 points from 14 games; Club Guarani are 6th on 22 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Rubio NU are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Olimpia.
- Club Guarani are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Libertad Asuncion.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Club Guarani 2–3 Rubio NU.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rubio NU vs Club Guarani
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Guarani at 41% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rubio NU vs Club Guarani
Rubio NU
- D0-0Olimpia11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026
- D2-22 de Mayo26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cerro Porteno19 September 2026
- L0-1Nacional Asuncion13 September 2026
Club Guarani
- D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Trinidense18 September 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 September 2026
What these results say
- Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rubio NU | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Club Guarani
- 15 August 2026Club Guarani 2–3 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 April 2026Rubio NU 0–2 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 1 February 2026Club Guarani 4–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 12 November 2017Club Guarani 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 September 2017Rubio NU 0–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 18 June 2017Club Guarani 2–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Club Guarani
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz32
Club Guarani
GoalsAssists
- S. Zaracho31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rubio NU carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.53 for Club Guarani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Rubio NU and 1.50 for Club Guarani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rubio NU rate 0.62 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Guarani rate 0.65 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubio NU a 0% chance of the title and Club Guarani 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rubio NU against 1.50 for Club Guarani. Rubio NU's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.24 for Club Guarani.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rubio NU at home · Club Guarani away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Rubio NU 14, Club Guarani 14.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Rubio NU have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rubio NU
- at Sportivo Trinidense5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 17%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 52%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
- vs Libertad Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
Club Guarani
- vs 2 de Mayo5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 45%
- at Sportivo Ameliano8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Olimpia15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
- at Deportivo Recoleta18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.