2 de Mayo
vs
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: 2 de Mayo 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta
The model makes it 60% 2 de Mayo, 22% draw, 18% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: 2 de Mayo 2.20, Deportivo Recoleta 0.97.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to 2 de Mayo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- 2 de Mayo are top on 28 points from 14 games; Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 8 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- 2 de Mayo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Deportivo Recoleta have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Nacional Asuncion.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Recoleta 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 August 2026, ended Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 2 de Mayo.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 2 de Mayo at 60% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta
2 de Mayo
- W1-0Sportivo Ameliano12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno5 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rubio NU26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nacional Asuncion18 September 2026
- L0-2Libertad Asuncion11 September 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
- L0-1away to Nacional Asuncion12 October 2026
- L1-2Libertad Asuncion5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Luqueno20 September 2026
- L1-3Sportivo Trinidense12 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Recoleta did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Recoleta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 28 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 14 August 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 18 April 2026Deportivo Recoleta 5–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 20 February 20262 de Mayo 0–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 21 November 20252 de Mayo 0–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 30 August 2025Deportivo Recoleta 2–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 April 20252 de Mayo 0–4 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Deportivo Recoleta
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
2 de Mayo carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.23 for Deportivo Recoleta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for 2 de Mayo and 0.97 for Deportivo Recoleta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
2 de Mayo rate 0.65 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Recoleta rate 0.59 and 2.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 2 de Mayo a 16.5% chance of the title and Deportivo Recoleta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 2 de Mayo the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for 2 de Mayo against 0.97 for Deportivo Recoleta. 2 de Mayo's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.08 for Deportivo Recoleta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
2 de Mayo at home · Deportivo Recoleta away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: 2 de Mayo 14, Deportivo Recoleta 14.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
2 de Mayo
- at Club Guarani5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 26%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 40%
- at Sportivo Luqueno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 65%
Deportivo Recoleta
- vs Sportivo Ameliano5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
- at Olimpia8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 13%
- at Cerro Porteno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 16%
- vs Club Guarani18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.