Club Guarani
vs
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Club Guarani 0–1 Nacional Asuncion
The model makes it 33% Club Guarani, 32% draw, 35% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Club Guarani 1.03, Nacional Asuncion 1.06.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Club Guarani and Nacional Asuncion are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Club Guarani are 6th on 22 points from 14 games; Nacional Asuncion are 4th on 26 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Club Guarani are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Libertad Asuncion.
- Nacional Asuncion are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Deportivo Recoleta.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Club Guarani.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional Asuncion at 35% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
- D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Trinidense18 September 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 September 2026
Nacional Asuncion
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta12 October 2026
- D1-1away to Olimpia6 October 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano25 September 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rubio NU13 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Guarani went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
- Nacional Asuncion went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nacional Asuncion scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Club Guarani | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Club Guarani
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
Nacional Asuncion
Chance to win the league · 27% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion
- 9 August 2026Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 3 May 2026Club Guarani 0–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 1 March 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 November 2025Club Guarani 0–4 Nacional AsuncionCopa Paraguay
- 21 September 2025Club Guarani 2–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 July 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Club Guarani and Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
GoalsAssists
- S. Zaracho31
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez55
- I. Valdez50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club Guarani carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.71 for Nacional Asuncion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Club Guarani and 1.06 for Nacional Asuncion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Guarani rate 0.65 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nacional Asuncion rate 0.71 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Guarani a 1.1% chance of the title and Nacional Asuncion 27.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Club Guarani against 1.06 for Nacional Asuncion. Club Guarani's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.97 for Nacional Asuncion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Guarani at home · Nacional Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Guarani 14, Nacional Asuncion 14.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Nacional Asuncion have let in 1 there.
Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Club Guarani have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Club Guarani
- at Rubio NU29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
- vs 2 de Mayo5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 45%
- at Sportivo Ameliano8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Olimpia15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
- at Deportivo Recoleta18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 45%
Nacional Asuncion
- vs Sportivo Trinidense29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 50%
- at Sportivo Luqueno5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 72%
- at Libertad Asuncion15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Cerro Porteno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.