Deportivo Recoleta
vs
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Rubio NU
The model makes it 42% Deportivo Recoleta, 25% draw, 33% Rubio NU — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo Recoleta 1.84, Rubio NU 1.55.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 8 points from 14 games; Rubio NU are 10th on 13 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Deportivo Recoleta have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Nacional Asuncion.
- Rubio NU are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Olimpia.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Recoleta 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended Rubio NU 1–3 Deportivo Recoleta.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Recoleta vs Rubio NU
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Recoleta at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Recoleta vs Rubio NU
Deportivo Recoleta
- L0-1away to Nacional Asuncion12 October 2026
- L1-2Libertad Asuncion5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Luqueno20 September 2026
- L1-3Sportivo Trinidense12 September 2026
Rubio NU
- D0-0Olimpia11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026
- D2-22 de Mayo26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cerro Porteno19 September 2026
- L0-1Nacional Asuncion13 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Recoleta did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Recoleta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 8 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Recoleta
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 93% today
Rubio NU
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Recoleta vs Rubio NU
- 7 August 2026Rubio NU 1–3 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 26 March 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 29 January 2026Rubio NU 1–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 28 July 2024Deportivo Recoleta 2–0 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
- 19 April 2024Rubio NU 2–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Intermedia
- 29 August 2023Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
Leading scorers: Deportivo Recoleta and Rubio NU
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Recoleta carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.29 for Rubio NU. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.55 for Rubio NU. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Recoleta rate 0.59 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rubio NU rate 0.62 and 1.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rubio NU, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Recoleta the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta against 1.55 for Rubio NU. Deportivo Recoleta's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.92 for Rubio NU.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Recoleta at home · Rubio NU away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Deportivo Recoleta 14, Rubio NU 14.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Recoleta
- at 2 de Mayo29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 18%
- vs Sportivo Ameliano5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
- at Olimpia8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 13%
- at Cerro Porteno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 16%
- vs Club Guarani18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
Rubio NU
- vs Club Guarani29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 31%
- at Sportivo Trinidense5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 17%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 52%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
- vs Libertad Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.