Nacional Asuncion
vs
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Trinidense
The model makes it 50% Nacional Asuncion, 28% draw, 22% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Nacional Asuncion 1.62, Sportivo Trinidense 0.90.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Nacional Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Nacional Asuncion are 4th on 26 points from 14 games; Sportivo Trinidense are 5th on 24 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Nacional Asuncion are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Deportivo Recoleta.
- Sportivo Trinidense are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Nacional Asuncion.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional Asuncion at 50% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense
Nacional Asuncion
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta12 October 2026
- D1-1away to Olimpia6 October 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano25 September 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rubio NU13 September 2026
Sportivo Trinidense
- D1-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo10 October 2026
- W3-2Sportivo Luqueno5 October 2026
- W2-1Cerro Porteno26 September 2026
- L0-1Club Guarani18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Recoleta12 September 2026
What these results say
- Nacional Asuncion went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nacional Asuncion scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
- Sportivo Trinidense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Trinidense.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 26 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense
- 15 August 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 9 May 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 9 March 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 1 November 2025Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 October 2025Sportivo Trinidense 0–0 Nacional AsuncionCopa Paraguay
- 17 August 2025Sportivo Trinidense 0–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Sportivo Trinidense
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez55
- I. Valdez50
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
- L. Abreu31
- T. Rayer31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nacional Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.55 for Sportivo Trinidense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.90 for Sportivo Trinidense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nacional Asuncion rate 0.71 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Trinidense rate 0.77 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nacional Asuncion a 27.3% chance of the title and Sportivo Trinidense 5.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion against 0.90 for Sportivo Trinidense. Nacional Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.4 for Sportivo Trinidense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nacional Asuncion at home · Sportivo Trinidense away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Nacional Asuncion 14, Sportivo Trinidense 14.
Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Sportivo Trinidense have let in 2 there.
Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Nacional Asuncion have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nacional Asuncion
- at Sportivo Luqueno5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 72%
- at Libertad Asuncion15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Cerro Porteno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 50%
Sportivo Trinidense
- vs Rubio NU5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 62%
- at 2 de Mayo8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 32%
- vs Sportivo Ameliano15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 56%
- at Olimpia18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.