Olimpia
vs
2 de Mayo
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Olimpia 1–0 2 de Mayo
The model makes it 51% Olimpia, 27% draw, 22% 2 de Mayo — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olimpia 1.70, 2 de Mayo 0.96.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Olimpia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Olimpia are 2nd on 27 points from 14 games; 2 de Mayo are top on 28 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Rubio NU.
- 2 de Mayo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Last 6 meetings: 2 de Mayo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended 2 de Mayo 1–0 Olimpia.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olimpia vs 2 de Mayo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpia at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olimpia vs 2 de Mayo
Olimpia
- D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
- D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
- W3-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-0Sportivo Luqueno13 September 2026
2 de Mayo
- W1-0Sportivo Ameliano12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno5 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rubio NU26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nacional Asuncion18 September 2026
- L0-2Libertad Asuncion11 September 2026
What these results say
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Olimpia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Olimpia
Chance to win the league · 32% today
2 de Mayo
Chance to finish in the top four · 73% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs 2 de Mayo
- 8 August 20262 de Mayo 1–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 28 March 2026Olimpia 4–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 28 January 20262 de Mayo 1–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 26 November 2025Olimpia 3–3 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 7 September 20252 de Mayo 3–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 18 May 20252 de Mayo 0–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and 2 de Mayo
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olimpia carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.48 for 2 de Mayo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Olimpia and 0.96 for 2 de Mayo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olimpia rate 0.77 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 2 de Mayo rate 0.65 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 2 de Mayo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpia a 31.8% chance of the title and 2 de Mayo 16.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Olimpia against 0.96 for 2 de Mayo. Olimpia's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.36 for 2 de Mayo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olimpia at home · 2 de Mayo away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Olimpia 14, 2 de Mayo 14.
Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); 2 de Mayo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Olimpia
- at Sportivo Ameliano29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
- at Cerro Porteno5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 68%
- at Club Guarani15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 48%
2 de Mayo
- vs Deportivo Recoleta29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 60%
- at Club Guarani5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 26%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 40%
- at Sportivo Luqueno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.