Cerro Porteno
vs
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Cerro Porteno 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano
The model makes it 53% Cerro Porteno, 26% draw, 21% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Cerro Porteno 1.73, Sportivo Ameliano 0.90.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Cerro Porteno: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cerro Porteno are 7th on 20 points from 14 games; Sportivo Ameliano are 8th on 18 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Sportivo Ameliano are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to 2 de Mayo.
- Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Cerro Porteno.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cerro Porteno at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
Cerro Porteno
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno10 October 2026
- L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sportivo Trinidense26 September 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani12 September 2026
Sportivo Ameliano
- L0-1away to 2 de Mayo12 October 2026
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nacional Asuncion25 September 2026
- D1-1away to Libertad Asuncion19 September 2026
- W1-0Club Sp. San Lorenzo11 September 2026
What these results say
- Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cerro Porteno
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Sportivo Ameliano
Chance to finish in the top four · 2% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
- 8 August 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 April 2026Cerro Porteno 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 February 2026Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 20 September 2025Cerro Porteno 2–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 July 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 May 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and Sportivo Ameliano
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti70
- D. Rodríguez43
- I. Ramírez32
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
- C. Ocampos42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cerro Porteno carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.35 for Sportivo Ameliano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Cerro Porteno and 0.90 for Sportivo Ameliano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cerro Porteno rate 0.67 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Ameliano rate 0.58 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cerro Porteno a 0.5% chance of the title and Sportivo Ameliano 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Cerro Porteno against 0.90 for Sportivo Ameliano. Cerro Porteno's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.59 for Sportivo Ameliano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cerro Porteno at home · Sportivo Ameliano away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Cerro Porteno 14, Sportivo Ameliano 14.
Cerro Porteno score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 1 there.
Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cerro Porteno
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 51%
- vs Olimpia5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
- at Libertad Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 62%
- at Nacional Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 21%
Sportivo Ameliano
- vs Olimpia29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- at Deportivo Recoleta5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
- vs Club Guarani8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- at Sportivo Trinidense15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.