4 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat Almaty.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Levski Sofia, 18% draw, 18% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 1.56, 5.56 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Kairat Almaty v Levski Sofia, 11 Aug →

Levski Sofia went through 2–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Levski Sofia at 64% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Levski Sofia7%Draw89%Kairat Almaty4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁N. Serafimovout: M. Soula
46'
60'
🔁Edmilsonout: I. Bekbolat
61'
🔁O. Baybekout: D. Kasabulat
🔁A. Oko-Flexout: A. Mitkov
64'
77'
🔁O. Jukkolaout: M. Birkurmanov
77'
🔁M. Gualout: E. Tapalov
🔁Reinaldoout: J. Perea
78'
88'
🔁G. Mendonsaout: A. Shirobokov
Serginho
90+3'
🔁Everton Balaout: S. Stoyanchov
90'
⚽Serginhoassist: M. Soula
90'

Line-ups

Levski Sofia 4-3-3
  • 92S. VutsovG
  • 21A. NevesD
  • 50K. DimitrovD
  • 31N. SerafimovD
  • 20A. CentellesD
  • 35SerginhoM
  • 18G. TrdinM
  • 19M. MoubarikM
  • 11A. Oko-FlexM
  • 7ReinaldoF
  • 17Everton BalaM
Substitutes
  • 1O. VladimirovG
  • 78M. LukovG
  • 2S. HeverttonD
  • 4C. MakounD
  • 9J. PereaF
  • 10A. MitkovM
  • 22M. SoulaM
  • 27D. KussoM
  • 28S. StoyanchovF
Coach: Julio Velazquez
Kairat Almaty 4-3-3
  • 1T. AnarbekovG
  • 24A. MrynskiyD
  • 14A. MartynovichD
  • 44Lucas AfricoD
  • 3L. MataD
  • 8O. BaybekM
  • 13J. OksanenM
  • 22G. Mendonsa
  • 28M. GualF
  • 9EdmilsonF
  • 19O. JukkolaM
Substitutes
  • 30D. BuchG
  • 82S. KalmurzaG
  • 4D. KasabulatM
  • 5L. KurginD
  • 6A. SadybekovM
  • 15M. BirkurmanovF
  • 17A. TuyakbaevM
  • 20E. TapalovD
  • 25A. ShirobokovD
Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin

Form going into Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty

Levski Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Universitatea Craiova29 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
  • W1-0Universitatea Craiova22 July 2026
  • W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026

Kairat Almaty

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia29 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia22 July 2026

What these results say

  • Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Levski Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Levski Sofia won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: Levski Sofia and Kairat Almaty

Levski Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • Reinaldo30

Kairat Almaty

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Levski Sofia beat Kairat Almaty 1–0. The model had made a win for Levski Sofia its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Serginho 90' for Levski Sofia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.