4 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat Almaty.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Levski Sofia, 18% draw, 18% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 1.56, 5.56 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Levski Sofia at 64% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Levski Sofia7%Draw89%Kairat Almaty4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁N. Serafimovout: M. Soula
46'
60'
🔁Edmilsonout: I. Bekbolat
61'
🔁O. Baybekout: D. Kasabulat
🔁A. Oko-Flexout: A. Mitkov
64'
77'
🔁O. Jukkolaout: M. Birkurmanov
77'
🔁M. Gualout: E. Tapalov
🔁Reinaldoout: J. Perea
78'
88'
🔁G. Mendonsaout: A. Shirobokov
Serginho
90+3'
🔁Everton Balaout: S. Stoyanchov
90'
⚽Serginhoassist: M. Soula
90'

Line-ups

Levski Sofia 4-3-3
  • 92S. VutsovG
  • 21A. NevesD
  • 50K. DimitrovD
  • 31N. SerafimovD
  • 20A. CentellesD
  • 35SerginhoM
  • 18G. TrdinM
  • 19M. MoubarikM
  • 11A. Oko-FlexM
  • 7ReinaldoF
  • 17Everton BalaM
Substitutes
  • 1O. VladimirovG
  • 78M. LukovG
  • 2S. HeverttonD
  • 4C. MakounD
  • 9J. PereaF
  • 10A. MitkovM
  • 22M. SoulaM
  • 27D. KussoM
  • 28S. StoyanchovF
Coach: Julio Velazquez
Kairat Almaty 4-3-3
  • 1T. AnarbekovG
  • 24A. MrynskiyD
  • 14A. MartynovichD
  • 44Lucas AfricoD
  • 3L. MataD
  • 8O. BaybekM
  • 13J. OksanenM
  • 22G. Mendonsa
  • 28M. GualF
  • 9EdmilsonF
  • 19O. JukkolaM
Substitutes
  • 30D. BuchG
  • 82S. KalmurzaG
  • 4D. KasabulatM
  • 5L. KurginD
  • 6A. SadybekovM
  • 15M. BirkurmanovF
  • 17A. TuyakbaevM
  • 20E. TapalovD
  • 25A. ShirobokovD
Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin

Form going into Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty

Levski Sofia

  • W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Universitatea Craiova29 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
  • W1-0Universitatea Craiova22 July 2026
  • W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026

Kairat Almaty

  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia29 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Levski Sofia and Kairat Almaty in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1Levski SofiaFirst League9810214+1725

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Kairat Almaty has not started the league season yet. Full tables: First League · UEFA Europa Conference League

Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty

  • 4 August 2026Levski Sofia 0–0 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Levski Sofia and Kairat Almaty

Levski Sofia

  • Reinaldo3 goals
  • A. Oko-Flex2 goals

Kairat Almaty

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.