Levski Sofia
vs
Kairat Almaty
The model makes it 64% Levski Sofia, 18% draw, 18% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 1.56, 5.56 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 2.67, Kairat Almaty 1.42.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 1.42 for Kairat Almaty. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.86 for Kairat Almaty.