UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 4 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs NEC Nijmegen

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus

The model makes it 40% Olympiakos Piraeus, 27% draw, 33% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.43, NEC Nijmegen 1.30.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

56%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 9%2-1 9%

Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs NEC Nijmegen

  • 27 July 2024NEC Nijmegen 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.3 for NEC Nijmegen. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 0.79/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.96 for NEC Nijmegen.