4 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs NEC Nijmegen UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Olympiakos Piraeus, 27% draw, 33% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: NEC Nijmegen v Olympiakos Piraeus, 11 Aug →

NEC Nijmegen went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos Piraeus4%Draw92%NEC Nijmegen4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

David Carmo
11'
🔁J. Rocaout: G. Martins
46'
🔁Chiquinhoout: Jota Silva
56'
🔁D. Carmoout: L. Pirola
56'
🔁M. Saliakasout: P. Maffeo
57'
🔁P. Retsosout: Z. Smajlovic
64'
Dani García
67'
70'
🔁S. Ouaissaout: E. Mor
70'
🔁T. Stormout: B. Pereira
74'
🔁B. Linssenout: D. Tadic
74'
🔁P. Sandlerout: I. Hansen-Aaroen
90+1'
Willum Thor Willumsson
90'
🔁J. Monteiroout: W. T. Willumsson

Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs NEC Nijmegen

54%Possession46%
12Shots13
5On target4
5Corners2

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 31B. PopovicG
  • 2M. SaliakasD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 6D. CarmoD
  • 70B. OnyemaechiD
  • 14D. GarciaM
  • 96C. MouzakitisM
  • 23RodineiM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 73J. RocaM
  • 9A. El KaabiF
Substitutes
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 91D. StournarasG
  • 76A. TsompanidisG
  • 20Jota SilvaF
  • 8G. SaM
  • 16L. ScipioniM
  • 77C. FilisM
  • 7K. FortounisM
  • 10G. MartinsM
Coach: Luis Mendilibar Jose
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 3P. SandlerD
  • 24D. FonvilleD
  • 25S. OuaissaM
  • 35J. MonteiroM
  • 6D. NejasmicM
  • 99C. BischoffM
  • 20N. LebretonF
  • 30B. LinssenF
  • 9T. CheryF
Substitutes
  • 36F. EntiusG
  • 38J. Geneste
  • 10D. TadicF
  • 8I. Hansen-AaroenM
  • 7E. MorF
  • 5T. OuwejanD
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 11W. T. WillumssonM
  • 2B. PereiraD
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs NEC Nijmegen

  • 27 July 2024NEC Nijmegen 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Olympiakos Piraeus and NEC Nijmegen drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.