4 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Ararat-Armenia, 25% draw, 34% Celje — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ararat-Armenia at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ararat-Armenia96%Draw4%Celje0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽S. Seslar (pen)
⚽A. Serobyan
38'
46'
🔁V. Tushaout: Y. Dukuly
58'
Mario Kvesić
🔁M. Carlierout: A. Tera
59'
🔁A. Serobyanout: Franca Carlos
59'
64'
🔁S. Seslarout: A. Kotnik
64'
🔁A. Kucysout: R. Pozeg
⚽Franca Carlosassist: E. Grigoryan
70'
🔁Z. Banjaquiout: M. Ayvazyan
83'
90+5'
Papa Daniel
🔁H. Oliveiraout: A. Ndour
90'
🔁Sandro Limaout: P. Ayongo
90'
90+5'
🔁P. Danielout: M. Poplatnik

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia 4-3-3
  • 98Joao Bravim
  • 3Junior Julio
  • 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
  • 47A. MalisD
  • 16E. GrigoryanD
  • 2H. OliveiraD
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 17M. CarlierM
  • 77A. SerobyanM
  • 91Sandro LimaF
  • 11Z. BanjaquiM
Substitutes
  • 1A. NersesyanG
  • 5Luis FelipeD
  • 6M. AyvazyanM
  • 7Z. ShaghoyanM
  • 8J. A. BalantaM
  • 9A. EloyanF
  • 14B. PereiraD
  • 20A. TeraM
  • 25A. NdourF
Coach: Tulipa
Celje 3-4-3
  • 1Z. LebanG
  • 2P. SirvysD
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 6A. TutyskinasD
  • 25V. TushaM
  • 13P. DanielM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 8M. KvesicM
  • 10S. SeslarM
  • 47A. Kucys
  • 11M. AvdyliM
Substitutes
  • 12L. KolarG
  • 23Z. FrelihG
  • 3D. VuklisevicD
  • 7B. VerbicM
  • 17A. KotnikF
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 27I. CalusicD
  • 33L. KoutrisD
  • 77M. IvansekM
Coach: Vitor Campelos

Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Ararat-Armenia

  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers21 July 2026

Celje

  • D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë28 July 2026
  • D3-3away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

  • 24 September 2020Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.