UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 4 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan

The model makes it 41% Ararat-Armenia, 25% draw, 34% Celje — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 1.61, Celje 1.46.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

62%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

24 September 2020Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ararat-Armenia the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia against 1.46 for Celje. Ararat-Armenia's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.77 for Celje.