4 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Ararat-Armenia, 25% draw, 34% Celje — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Celje v Ararat-Armenia, 11 Aug →

Celje went through 3–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ararat-Armenia at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ararat-Armenia96%Draw4%Celje0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽S. Seslar (pen)
⚽A. Serobyan
38'
46'
🔁V. Tushaout: Y. Dukuly
58'
Mario Kvesić
🔁M. Carlierout: A. Tera
59'
🔁A. Serobyanout: Franca Carlos
59'
64'
🔁S. Seslarout: A. Kotnik
64'
🔁A. Kucysout: R. Pozeg
⚽Franca Carlosassist: E. Grigoryan
70'
🔁Z. Banjaquiout: M. Ayvazyan
83'
90+5'
Papa Daniel
🔁H. Oliveiraout: A. Ndour
90'
🔁Sandro Limaout: P. Ayongo
90'
90+5'
🔁P. Danielout: M. Poplatnik

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia 4-3-3
  • 98Joao Bravim
  • 3Junior Julio
  • 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
  • 47A. MalisD
  • 16E. GrigoryanD
  • 2H. OliveiraD
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 17M. CarlierM
  • 77A. SerobyanM
  • 91Sandro LimaF
  • 11Z. BanjaquiM
Substitutes
  • 1A. NersesyanG
  • 5Luis FelipeD
  • 6M. AyvazyanM
  • 7Z. ShaghoyanM
  • 8J. A. BalantaM
  • 9A. EloyanF
  • 14B. PereiraD
  • 20A. TeraM
  • 25A. NdourF
Coach: Tulipa
Celje 3-4-3
  • 1Z. LebanG
  • 2P. SirvysD
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 6A. TutyskinasD
  • 25V. TushaM
  • 13P. DanielM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 8M. KvesicM
  • 10S. SeslarM
  • 47A. Kucys
  • 11M. AvdyliM
Substitutes
  • 12L. KolarG
  • 23Z. FrelihG
  • 3D. VuklisevicD
  • 7B. VerbicM
  • 17A. KotnikF
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 27I. CalusicD
  • 33L. KoutrisD
  • 77M. IvansekM
Coach: Vitor Campelos

Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Ararat-Armenia

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers21 July 2026

Celje

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë28 July 2026
  • D3-3away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

  • 24 September 2020Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League

The result against the call

Ararat-Armenia beat Celje 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ararat-Armenia at 41%. The goals: S. Seslar (penalty) 22' for Celje, A. Serobyan 38' for Ararat-Armenia, Franca Carlos 70' for Ararat-Armenia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.