UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 4 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Auda vs Dinamo Tirana

Skonto stadions, Riga

The model makes it 52% Auda, 25% draw, 23% Dinamo Tirana — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Auda 1.72, Dinamo Tirana 1.06.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

54%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 10%2-1 10%

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Auda the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Auda against 1.06 for Dinamo Tirana. Auda's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.34 for Dinamo Tirana.