Shamrock Rovers vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Shamrock Rovers, 22% draw, 41% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 2.70, 4.55 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Shamrock Rovers, 13 Aug →
Egnatia Rrogozhinë went through 6–4 on aggregate.
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shamrock Rovers vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Line-ups
- 1Ed McGintyG
- 22Tunmise SobowaleD
- 4PicoD
- 3Enda StevensD
- 24William FitzgeraldM
- 29Jack ByrneM
- 8Matthew HealyM
- 7Dylan WattsM
- 19Adam BrennanM
- 10Graham BurkeF
- 9Aaron GreeneF
- 11Jake MulraneyM
- 18Jonathan AfolabiF
- 14Daniel MandroiuM
- 28Naj RaziM
- 26John O'SullivanM
- 41Alex NoonanG
- 5Lee GraceD
- 17Luke O'ReganD
- 27Cory O'SullivanD
- 98Mario DajsinaniG
- 28Eljon SotaD
- 33Eneo BitriD
- 4Zamiq AliyevD
- 22Guillem JaimeD
- 7Fernando MedeirosM
- 17Altin KryeziuM
- 8Ibrahim DiabatéM
- 29Andrey YagoM
- 2Daniel AdjessaF
- 77Ildi GrudaM
- 10Alessandro AlbaneseM
- 20Karim LoukiliM
- 99Jurguens MontenegroF
- 24Numan AjetovikjD
- 16Edison NdrecaD
- 1Levan TandilashviliG
- 12Bruno PujaG
- 13Alessandro KacbufiD
- 55Geralb SmajliD
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Shamrock Rovers
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Ararat-Armenia28 July 2026
- L0-2away to Ararat-Armenia21 July 2026
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Celje28 July 2026
- D3-3Celje22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Shamrock Rovers and Egnatia Rrogozhinë in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 35 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 68 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | UEFA Europa Conference League | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premier Division · UEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Shamrock Rovers
GoalsAssists
- J. McGovern107
- G. Burke84
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shamrock Rovers beat Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 41% and given a win for Shamrock Rovers 37%. The goals: Graham Burke (penalty) 29' for Shamrock Rovers, Guillem Jaime 41' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, Pico 55' for Shamrock Rovers, Aaron Greene 57' for Shamrock Rovers.