Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
The model makes it 64% Dinamo Zagreb, 21% draw, 15% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 2.03, Kauno Žalgiris 0.86.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 0.86 for Kauno Žalgiris. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.65 for Kauno Žalgiris.