4 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 Kauno Žalgiris.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Dinamo Zagreb, 21% draw, 15% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Kauno Žalgiris v Dinamo Zagreb, 11 Aug →

Dinamo Zagreb went through 7–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 64% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb99%Draw1%Kauno Žalgiris0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Zajcassist: L. Stojkovic
31'
⚽S. McKennaassist: M. Perez Vinlof
33'
46'
🔁L. Krekovicout: Y. Karashima
46'
🔁M. Konatarout: N. Iyobosa Edokpolor
⚽M. Lisicaassist: J. Misic
51'
57'
🔁F. Ouregaout: I. Fiolic
🔁A. Hoxhaout: M. Orsic
61'
65'
🔁Renan Oliveiraout: A. Kalik
🔁M. Lisicaout: F. Topic
71'
🔁M. Zajcout: L. Kacavenda
71'
⚽L. Stojkovicassist: D. Beljo
76'
84'
🔁A. Benchaibout: G. Debeljuh
85'
Anthony Kalik
🔁L. Stojkovicout: G. Vidovic
86'
🔁D. Beljoout: S. Prevljak
86'
⚽L. Kacavenda
90'

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 7L. StojkovicM
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 21M. LisicaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 11A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 1D. ZagoracG
  • 33I. NevisticG
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 10G. VidovicM
  • 13P. TabinasD
  • 14S. PrevljakF
  • 15N. GalesicD
  • 30F. TopicF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
Kauno Žalgiris 4-4-2
  • 55T. SvedkauskasG
  • 45J. MoutachyD
  • 3A. TolordavaD
  • 77R. LekiatasD
  • 33M. KonatarD
  • 9L. KrekovicM
  • 32F. BaldassarraM
  • 14V. SlivkaM
  • 70F. OuregaM
  • 7A. BenchaibF
  • 19Renan OliveiraF
Substitutes
  • 22D. MikelionisG
  • 4L. RacicD
  • 8Y. KarashimaM
  • 10G. SirgedasM
  • 15Leo RibeiroM
  • 17I. FiolicM
  • 20A. KalikM
  • 23A. HernandezD
  • 24M. BurbaF
Coach: Eivinas Cerniauskas

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris

Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
  • W3-2FC Thun28 July 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Thun21 July 2026

Kauno Žalgiris

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026
  • D0-0away to KI Klaksvik21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Zagreb beat Kauno Žalgiris 5–0. The model had made a win for Dinamo Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: M. Zajc 31' for Dinamo Zagreb, S. McKenna 33' for Dinamo Zagreb, M. Lisica 51' for Dinamo Zagreb, L. Stojkovic 76' for Dinamo Zagreb, L. Kacavenda 90' for Dinamo Zagreb.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.