4 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Larne vs FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Inver Park, Larne
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Larne 0-0 FC Iberia 1999.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% Larne, 18% draw, 12% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: FC Iberia 1999 v Larne, 11 Aug →

FC Iberia 1999 went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Larne at 70% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Larne7%Draw91%FC Iberia 19992%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Tomas Cosgrove
11'
Chris Gallagher
45'
59'
🔁Andria Bartishviliout: Amiran Dzagania
🔁Dylan Sloanout: Jordan McEneff
65'
🔁Montel Gibsonout: Paul O'Neill
65'
66'
Jemali Giorgi Jinjolava
🔁Ronan Dohertyout: James Simpson
75'
🔁Matthew Lustyout: Kevin O'Hara
75'
78'
🔁Giorgi Kutsiaout: Abdullahi Ibrahim Alhassan

Line-ups

Larne 4-3-3
  • 1Rohan FergusonG
  • 23Tomas CosgroveD
  • 26Dan BentM
  • 3Matt RidleyD
  • 4Aaron DonnellyD
  • 15Ronan DohertyM
  • 6Chris GallagherM
  • 11Sean GrahamD
  • 25Dylan SloanM
  • 45Montel GibsonF
  • 30Matthew LustyF
Substitutes
  • 22Jordan McEneffM
  • 9Paul O'NeillF
  • 47James SimpsonM
  • 19Kevin O'HaraF
  • 16Jacob CarneyG
  • 2Logan WallaceD
  • 7Conor McKendryM
  • 17Joshua UkekM
  • 14Benji MageeM
Coach: Gary Haveron
FC Iberia 1999 4-3-3
  • 31Giorgi MakaridzeG
  • 40Giorgi KobuladzeD
  • 4Vahid SelimovićD
  • 25Aleksandre AmisulashviliD
  • 5Jemali Giorgi JinjolavaD
  • 8Bakar KardavaM
  • 6Nikoloz DadianiM
  • 27Giorgi KutsiaM
  • 10Zviad NatchkebiaM
  • 19Nika SikharulashviliM
  • 11Andria BartishviliM
Substitutes
  • 9Amiran DzaganiaF
  • 14Abdullahi Ibrahim AlhassanM
  • 1Tornike MegrelishviliG
  • 30Nikoloz BochorishviliD
  • 39Giorgi ChanturiaD
  • 23Eldar KuliievM
  • 17Stephen EndeF
  • 29Lado ChikhradzeF
Coach: Andriy Demchenko

Form going into Larne vs FC Iberia 1999

Larne

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda29 July 2026
  • L0-4FK Crvena Zvezda21 July 2026

FC Iberia 1999

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Slovan Bratislava29 July 2026
  • L0-2Slovan Bratislava21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Larne and FC Iberia 1999 drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Larne at 70% and given a draw 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.