UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 4 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Toto Turner Stadium

The model makes it 38% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 21% draw, 41% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.63, 4.76 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.03, FK Crvena Zvezda 2.13.

Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

77%

Both teams to score

79%

Over 2.5 goals

21%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines2-2 7%1-2 7%1-1 7%

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva against 2.13 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Hapoel Beer Sheva's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.92 for FK Crvena Zvezda.