4 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Toto Turner Stadium
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 FK Crvena Zvezda.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 21% draw, 41% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.63, 4.76 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Beer Sheva92%Draw8%FK Crvena Zvezda0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Mohammad Abu Fani
⚽Z. Ahmed
38'
45+1'
Strahinja Eraković
🔁I. Zlatanovicout: M. Abu Rumi
46'
46'
🔁V. Kostovout: M. Arnautovic
46'
🔁M. Ivanicout: T. Elsnik
46'
🔁M. Abu Faniout: M. Cham
Matan Baltaxa
58'
Matan Baltaxa
58'
Eliel Peretz
58'
Matan Baltaxa
58'
🔁G. Mizrahiout: P. Amador
63'
🔁N. Yehoshuaout: D. T. Diop
63'
Itay Rotman
64'
73'
🔁O. Bukariout: A. Katai
73'
🔁Bruno Duarteout: L. Loizou
80'
Derrick Luckassen
🔁J. Eastout: A. Ohana
83'
84'
Nair Tiknizyan
85'
Muhammed-Cham Saračević
🔁E. Peretzout: H. Kanaan
88'

Line-ups

Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-3-3
  • 1O. MarcianoG
  • 2G. MizrahiD
  • 4Miguel VitorD
  • 12I. RotmanD
  • 3M. BaltaxaD
  • 28N. YehoshuaM
  • 25Lucas VenturaM
  • 7E. PeretzM
  • 20J. EastF
  • 66I. ZlatanovicF
  • 9Z. AhmedF
Substitutes
  • 34M. WolffG
  • 5P. AmadorD
  • 8H. KanaanF
  • 11A. C. GanahF
  • 13O. DavidzadaD
  • 18R. LevyM
  • 19A. OhanaF
  • 21Y. KorenF
  • 23I. HazutM
Coach: Ran Kozuch
FK Crvena Zvezda 4-2-3-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 66Seol Young-WooD
  • 32D. LuckassenD
  • 25S. ErakovicD
  • 23N. TiknizyanD
  • 33R. KrunicM
  • 15M. Abu FaniM
  • 14O. BukariM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 4M. IvanicM
  • 17Bruno DuarteF
Substitutes
  • 77I. GutesaG
  • 7M. ArnautovicF
  • 8K. BalovM
  • 9J. EnemF
  • 10A. KataiM
  • 13M. VeljkovicD
  • 21T. ElsnikM
  • 24N. StankovicD
  • 27M. StrikaD
Coach: Dejan Stankovic

Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • W2-0Vikingur Reykjavik29 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Vikingur Reykjavik21 July 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • W5-0Larne29 July 2026
  • W4-0away to Larne21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Hapoel Beer Sheva and FK Crvena Zvezda in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
4Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al42117707
1FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga8710192+1722

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligat Ha'al · Super Liga

Head-to-head: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda

  • 4 August 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Hapoel Beer Sheva and FK Crvena Zvezda

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • M. Kna'an1 goals1 assists
  • A. Ganah1 goals

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • V. Kostov4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.