4 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Toto Turner Stadium
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Final score: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 FK Crvena Zvezda.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 21% draw, 41% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.63, 4.76 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: FK Crvena Zvezda v Hapoel Beer Sheva, 11 Aug →

Hapoel Beer Sheva went through 3–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Beer Sheva92%Draw8%FK Crvena Zvezda0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Mohammad Abu Fani
⚽Z. Ahmed
38'
45+1'
Strahinja Eraković
🔁I. Zlatanovicout: M. Abu Rumi
46'
46'
🔁V. Kostovout: M. Arnautovic
46'
🔁M. Ivanicout: T. Elsnik
46'
🔁M. Abu Faniout: M. Cham
Matan Baltaxa
58'
Matan Baltaxa
58'
Eliel Peretz
58'
Matan Baltaxa
58'
🔁G. Mizrahiout: P. Amador
63'
🔁N. Yehoshuaout: D. T. Diop
63'
Itay Rotman
64'
73'
🔁O. Bukariout: A. Katai
73'
🔁Bruno Duarteout: L. Loizou
80'
Derrick Luckassen
🔁J. Eastout: A. Ohana
83'
84'
Nair Tiknizyan
85'
Muhammed-Cham Saračević
🔁E. Peretzout: H. Kanaan
88'

Line-ups

Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-3-3
  • 1O. MarcianoG
  • 2G. MizrahiD
  • 4Miguel VitorD
  • 12I. RotmanD
  • 3M. BaltaxaD
  • 28N. YehoshuaM
  • 25Lucas VenturaM
  • 7E. PeretzM
  • 20J. EastF
  • 66I. ZlatanovicF
  • 9Z. AhmedF
Substitutes
  • 34M. WolffG
  • 5P. AmadorD
  • 8H. KanaanF
  • 11A. C. GanahF
  • 13O. DavidzadaD
  • 18R. LevyM
  • 19A. OhanaF
  • 21Y. KorenF
  • 23I. HazutM
Coach: Ran Kozuch
FK Crvena Zvezda 4-2-3-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 66Seol Young-WooD
  • 32D. LuckassenD
  • 25S. ErakovicD
  • 23N. TiknizyanD
  • 33R. KrunicM
  • 15M. Abu FaniM
  • 14O. BukariM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 4M. IvanicM
  • 17Bruno DuarteF
Substitutes
  • 77I. GutesaG
  • 7M. ArnautovicF
  • 8K. BalovM
  • 9J. EnemF
  • 10A. KataiM
  • 13M. VeljkovicD
  • 21T. ElsnikM
  • 24N. StankovicD
  • 27M. StrikaD
Coach: Dejan Stankovic

Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Hapoel Beer Sheva

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Vikingur Reykjavik29 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Vikingur Reykjavik21 July 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0Larne29 July 2026
  • W4-0away to Larne21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Crvena Zvezda at 41% and given a win for Hapoel Beer Sheva 38%. The goal: Z. Ahmed 38' for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Sent off: Matan Baltaxa (Hapoel Beer Sheva) 58'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.