Lech Poznan
vs
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Lech Poznan 2–0 Wisla Krakow
The model makes it 57% Lech Poznan, 24% draw, 19% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.08, Wisla Krakow 0.99.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Lech Poznan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lech Poznan are 2nd on 22 points from 9 games; Wisla Krakow are 6th on 18 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Lech Poznan have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Slask Wroclaw.
- Wisla Krakow have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Widzew Łódź.
- Last 6 meetings: Lech Poznan 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2022, ended Wisla Krakow 1–1 Lech Poznan.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 57% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan
- W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026
- W5-1Radomiak Radom20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
Wisla Krakow
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
What these results say
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wisla Krakow had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 22 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lech Poznan
Chance to win the league · 43% today
Wisla Krakow
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
- 13 March 2022Wisla Krakow 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 17 September 2021Lech Poznan 5–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 8 May 2021Wisla Krakow 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 19 December 2020Lech Poznan 0–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 8 March 2020Wisla Krakow 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 5 October 2019Lech Poznan 4–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
- P. Wålemark43
- Pablo Rodríguez43
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.69 for Wisla Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.99 for Wisla Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 1.13 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Krakow rate 0.81 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lech Poznan a 42.7% chance of the title and Wisla Krakow 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 0.99 for Wisla Krakow. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.11 for Wisla Krakow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lech Poznan at home · Wisla Krakow away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Lech Poznan 9, Wisla Krakow 11.
Lech Poznan score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Wisla Krakow have let in 1 there.
Wisla Krakow score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lech Poznan
- at Benfica5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 16%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 60%
Wisla Krakow
- vs Cracovia Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 50%
- at Radomiak Radom21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 44%
- vs Motor Lublin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 51%
- at Zaglebie Lubin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.