Wisla Plock
vs
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak Radom
The model makes it 44% Wisla Plock, 29% draw, 27% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.63, Radomiak Radom 1.02.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Wisla Plock are 11th on 11 points from 8 games; Radomiak Radom are 14th on 8 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wisla Plock are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to Zaglebie Lubin.
- Radomiak Radom are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Lech Poznan.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Wisla Plock 0–1 Radomiak Radom.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Plock at 44% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom
Wisla Plock
- W2-0away to Zaglebie Lubin20 September 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
- L0-5away to GKS Katowice23 August 2026
Radomiak Radom
- L1-5away to Lech Poznan20 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
- D0-0Zaglebie Lubin23 August 2026
What these results say
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radomiak Radom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wisla Plock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom
- 26 April 2026Wisla Plock 0–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 27 October 2025Radomiak Radom 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 22 January 2025Radomiak Radom 0–4 Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
- 17 November 2023Wisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak RadomFriendlies Clubs
- 2 April 2023Wisla Plock 1–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 10 September 2022Radomiak Radom 2–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wisla Plock carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.42 for Radomiak Radom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Wisla Plock and 1.02 for Radomiak Radom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wisla Plock rate 0.64 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radomiak Radom rate 0.65 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wisla Plock a 0.1% chance of the title and Radomiak Radom 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Plock the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Wisla Plock against 1.02 for Radomiak Radom. Wisla Plock's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.54 for Radomiak Radom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wisla Plock at home · Radomiak Radom away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wisla Plock 8, Radomiak Radom 9.
Radomiak Radom score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Wisla Plock have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Wisla Plock
- at Jagiellonia25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Piast Gliwice31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 37%
- at Motor Lublin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Legia Warszawa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Radomiak Radom
- at Pogon Szczecin24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 21%
- vs Slask Wroclaw31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Korona Kielce7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Wisla Krakow21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.