Raków Częstochowa
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Pogon Szczecin
The model makes it 33% Raków Częstochowa, 28% draw, 39% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.30, Pogon Szczecin 1.46.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Pogon Szczecin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Raków Częstochowa are bottom on 6 points from 11 games; Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 21 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Raków Częstochowa have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to GKS Katowice.
- Last 6 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Pogon Szczecin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
Raków Częstochowa
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków16 October 2026
- L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026
- L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
Pogon Szczecin
- W1-0away to GKS Katowice17 October 2026
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Raków Częstochowa had three goals or more.
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Raków Częstochowa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
Pogon Szczecin
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
- 8 March 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 19 April 2025Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 20 October 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 11 May 2024Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 12 November 2023Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch61
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.81 for Pogon Szczecin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.46 for Pogon Szczecin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.88 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogon Szczecin rate 0.79 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raków Częstochowa a 0% chance of the title and Pogon Szczecin 6.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.46 for Pogon Szczecin. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/0.89 for Pogon Szczecin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Raków Częstochowa at home · Pogon Szczecin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Raków Częstochowa 11, Pogon Szczecin 10.
Raków Częstochowa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Pogon Szczecin have let in 2 there.
Pogon Szczecin score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Raków Częstochowa have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Raków Częstochowa
- at Legia Warszawa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 19%
- vs Widzew Łódź21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- vs Piast Gliwice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Radomiak Radom5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
Pogon Szczecin
- at Widzew Łódź7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 37%
- vs Slask Wroclaw21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 60%
- at Lech Poznan28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Gornik Zabrze5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.